WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

PRICES:

International: Asian prices continue to trend up. Thai 100B accelerated $27 over the last month largely as a result of the government intervention program, which introduced a new round of purchases November 1 at a higher purchase price. Thai prices are also up on the strengthening of the Thai baht and reduced crop prospects due to dry weather in the Northeast. Quotes are currently at $284 per ton, FOB. Viet 5% prices also edged higher by $4, to $235 per ton, FOB. However, Vietnam has relatively tight exportable supplies until the winter-spring crop is harvested in February. Meanwhile, Indian 5% quotes are up $8 to $255 per ton. India remains relatively withdrawn from the white rice market. (See PDF version for chart)

Domestic: U.S. prices continue to trend down thereby narrowing the spread between U.S. and Asian prices. U.S. #2/4 long grain milled rice is currently quoted at $329 per ton, FOB, down $6 from last month. The spread between similar qualities of U.S. and Thai prices has shrunk to $45 per ton. However, with Viet prices slow to increase, the spread between similar qualities of U.S. and Vietnam continues to be close to $100 per ton. Prices for U.S. #1/4 medium grain milled rice from California are quoted at $300 per ton, FOB, down $25 from last month.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2005

Selected Exporters

• Australia is cut 50,000 tons to 250,000 as exports are unlikely to rebound from the previous year due to tight supplies.
  
• Vietnam is up 150,000 tons to 3.9 million due to increased price competitiveness.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2004

Selected Exporters

• Australia is down 50,000 tons to 225,000 based on a lackluster pace largely due to a slow recovery from drought.
  
• Thailand is raised 200,000 tons to 10.0 million based on export pace to date, particularly to the Middle East and Africa.
  
• Vietnam is raised 200,000 tons to 4.2 million based on an exceptional pace to date.
  

Selected Importers

• Angola, Ghana, Guinea, and Mozambique are raised based on expanded shipments.
  
• Indonesia is reduced 100,000 tons to 700,000 as the government-imposed import ban continues to limit imports, including smuggling, in an effort to support higher producer prices.
  
• Kenya is boosted 75,000 to 250,000 tons as a result of increased shipments from Pakistan and Vietnam.
  
• Malaysia is up 75,000 tons to a record 800,000 tons as the government seeks to rebuild stocks.
  
• Senegal is raised 50,000 to 800,000 due to increased import demand.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003