RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Where have all the major markets gone? Part Two: With rising consumption outpacing production growth in Nigeria, imports climbed throughout the late 1990s and peaked at a record 1.0 million tons in 2001. Since then, consumption has slowed against record production, thereby shrinking the need for imports. The government has announced plans to further reduce Nigeria's dependence on imports in the future.
Record exports expected from Thailand: In a market with lackluster demand from the traditional key importers, Thailand is expected to export a record 9.25 million tons in CY (Calendar Year) 2004. With diminished exportable supplies in China and India and government-managed exports in Vietnam, Thailand has been able to pick up markets normally supplied by its main competitors. The major gains have been seen in Africa and the Middle East for both regular and parboiled rice. With this, Thailand is forecast to exceed its previous record export level--achieved in CY 2003--by nearly 20 percent. Outstanding export performance, reduced supplies from other major players, and relatively little demand from the key importers have kept prices from rising. (See PDF for chart)
International: Asian prices are currently moving in opposite directions. Thai 100B prices, after dropping for most of the month of September, have ticked back up with quotes currently at $243 per ton, FOB, down $1 from last month. Higher government intervention prices, which are above market prices, are providing some support. Prices in Vietnam, however, have trended downward, dropping $13 from last month. Viet 5% is currently quoted at $218 per ton, FOB. Prices have dropped in an effort to attract business after the raising of the export target by the government. Indian 5% is currently quoted at $242 per ton, FOB, down $10 from last month. (See PDF for chart)
Domestic: U.S. #2/4 long grain milled rice is currently quoted at $340 per ton, FOB, flat from last month despite a record crop forecast. Thus, the spread between U.S. and Thai prices continues to hover around $100 per ton. Prices for U.S. #1/4 medium grain milled rice from California are not being quoted as the harvest is in its early stages.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004
Note: Series revisions have been made to select African countries, including Angola, Benin, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Mauritania, Mozambique and Togo.
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