WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS:

Balkan Wheat Returns to the World Market: Romania and Bulgaria are both returning as net exporters this year, as production has rebounded from last year's record lows. Exports should return to more normal levels. However, while large quantities went to the EU-25 in previous years, an agreement now caps the amount with zero import duty at 275,000 tons for Bulgaria and 230,000 for Romania. Bulgaria's quota has already been filled, with shipments primarily to Spain. These quotas could therefore lead to a greater portion of sales to markets outside Europe. Bulgaria has already sold wheat to North African markets and even to Bangladesh. (See PDF version for chart)

PRICES:

Domestic: Prices during August declined through mid-month on larger crop prospects and more competition, but then moved upward with strong export sales and concern over bad weather in the Northern Plains.

For the week ending September 3, average HRW prices were $2 a ton higher and SRW was $5 a ton higher than the first week of August. HRS prices gained $12 a ton while SWW ended the month with a gain of $1 a ton. (See PDF version for chart)

TRADE CHANGES IN 2004/2005

Selected Exporters

• Bulgaria up 100,000 tons to 800,000 in light of higher production.
  
• Kazakhstan down 1.0 million tons to 4.5 million, given a smaller crop.
  
• Romania up 300,000 tons to 500,000 as the crop is more than triple last year's record low level.
  
• Ukraine up 500,000 tons to 3.5 million due to a larger-than-anticipated harvest.
  
• Uzbekistan up from zero to 100,000 tons, as a large crop allows for some exports.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2003/2004

Selected Exporters

• Argentina up about 350,000 tons to 7.3 million, reflecting year-end trade data.
  
• Canada up more than 100,000 tons to 15.6 million, given year-end trade data.
  
• Russia down 300,000 tons to 3.2 million due to late-season trade data.
  
• Uzbekistan up 450,000 tons from zero. Expanded production allowed Uzbekistan to export significant quantities to nearby markets.
  
• United States up nearly 300,000 tons to 32.3 million, accounting for year-end Census data.

Selected Importers

• China up about 250,000 tons to 3.7 million in light of year-end trade data.
  
• Philippines up 100,000 tons to 3.0 million due to late-season trade data.
  
• United States down over 100,000 tons to 1.8 million, reflecting year-end Census data.

Return to Table of Contents

Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003