COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Corn: Although U.S. exports have recovered somewhat in recent weeks from their earlier lassitude, total shipments to date are not on pace to meet the previous 50-million-ton forecast. In particular, exports to Canada and Mexico have slowed. With the approaching harvest of a record crop and anticipated lower prices, some outstanding sales could be switched to later delivery, further depressing the current year's export program. (See PDF version for charts)
Barley: Ukraine's largest harvest in 10 years is expected to propel the country to become the world's second largest exporter after Australia. Ukrainian barley is expected to dominate the Middle East, a key feed barley market traditionally covered by the EU. Without subsidies, EU exports cannot compete with the cheaper Black Sea supplies.
Domestic: Early August export bids for #2 yellow corn averaged $103/MT, down $2 from July and about the same as last September's price. Slight weather concerns and improved exports have reversed the slide in recent weeks. (See PDF version for chart)
Early August export bids for #2 yellow sorghum (Texas Gulf) averaged about $101/MT, up nearly $2 from July but $8 below harvest time prices from September 2003. Sorghum is at a $2 discount to corn, versus nearly a $6 premium last September. Price weakness caused by harvest activities in Texas and rapidly dropping corn prices have been offset to a degree by early-season sorghum exports to Mexico.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004/2005
TRADE CHANGES IN 2003/2004
Note: Due to large discrepancies between the timing of reported EU-25 rye exports, and reported South Korean and Japanese imports, revisions were made to the EU-25 export estimates for 2002/03 and 2003/04. The EU-25 number now reflects time of arrival in these countries.
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