WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
French Wheat Returns to Egypt: GASC, Egypt's official buyer
(accounting for around 75 percent of all imports), has already purchased 420,000
tons of wheat from France after more than a year's hiatus. High prices and the
absence of EU export subsidies allowed the United States and Australia to boost
exports there last year. With the approach of a record EU-25 crop, however,
French prices have dropped nearly $50 during the last 3 months, and the United
States and Australia now face renewed French competition, even without export
Domestic: Prices continued to trend downward during June with seasonal
harvest pressure and the likelihood of larger exportable supplies from the FSU
and the EU-25. Mid-month rains slowed the U.S. harvest and caused concerns about
quality. However, lax export sales, Egyptian purchases from France, and good
U.S. spring crop prospects sent prices down even further as June came to a
close. For the week ending July 2, average HRW and SRW prices were $12 a ton and
$9 a ton, respectively, lower than those in the first week of June. HRS prices
lost $10 a ton while SWW ended the month with a loss of $7 a ton.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004/2005
- Bulgaria up 200,000 tons to 400,000 with a larger expected crop.
The government recently lifted a ban on wheat and flour exports.
- Pakistan up 500,000 tons to 1.0 million, the largest amount in 5
years, as the government has announced a tender for half a million tons in
order to rebuild strategic stocks, and another tender is expected to follow.
- Romania down 400,000 tons to 100,000 on prospects for a much larger
TRADE CHANGES IN 2003/2004
- Argentina down 500,000 tons to 7.0 million because of a slow pace
of sales and exports.
- Australia up 500,000 tons to 14.5 million due to
larger-than-expected late season exports.
- Kazakhstan down 500,000 tons to 5.7 million as exports slowed
during the second half of the year.
- EU-25 up 300,000 tons to 9.8 million due to a strong pace of
- China up 500,000 tons to 3.5 million as the result of
larger-than-expected imports during the last quarter of the trade year.
- South Korea up 200,000 tons to 3.5 million with
larger-than-expected feed-quality wheat imports, especially from China.
- Morocco up 300,000 tons to 2.4 million due to a faster pace of
imports. A similar increase was made to the 2004/05 estimate.
- South Africa down 300,000 tons to 900,000 with a
slower-than-expected pace of imports.
- EU-25 down 1.0 million tons to 6.0 million as the result of
lower-than-anticipated imports by the new member states.
- United States down 100,000 tons to 1.9 million due to
smaller-than-expected wheat product imports. A similar reduction was made to
the 2004/05 estimate.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003