COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Corn: U.S. exports have been less than expected in recent weeks amid growing competition from Argentina and higher than expected shipments from Thailand. Even with a crop that is almost 20 percent smaller than last year, Argentina has been able to maintain an aggressive export pace. New sales in May and June were more than double the same period a year ago, posing especially strong competition in Malaysia, Peru, Tunisia, and Israel. In addition, Thailand managed to ship significant quantities during the last 2 months even as domestic supplies tightened and prices soared. As a result, the U.S. export estimate has been reduced by 2.0 million tons to 50.0 million. However, the slow export pace is expected to be only temporary, as the United States is anticipating a record crop and diminished competition from China and Brazil.
Sorghum: U.S. shipments to the EU-25 continue to slide, due to prospects for bumper EU-25 coarse grain and feed-quality wheat harvests and falling feed grain prices, the latter especially in Spain. Exports and sales to Mexico were lackluster in May and June.
China's sorghum export estimate for 2003/04 is raised again this month by 50,000 tons to 150,000, the highest in 9 years. Tight supplies in Australia, high U.S. prices (relative to corn), and freight advantages have helped expand China's market share in Japan and Taiwan.
Domestic: Early July Gulf export bids for #2 yellow corn averaged $111/MT, down $12 from June and about the same as last November's price. Concerns about U.S. growing conditions have largely subsided and prices have tumbled in recent weeks.
Early July export bids for #2 yellow sorghum (Texas Gulf) averaged about $105/MT, down nearly $11 from June and below harvest time prices from September 2003. Sorghum is now at a $7 discount to corn, versus nearly a $6 premium last September.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004/2005
TRADE CHANGES IN 2003/2004
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