RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Thailand Could Set Record: Exports are expected to surpass the previous record by about 15 percent with an upward revision to 9.0 million tons for 2004. While a strong monthly export pace is expected to continue, June's unexpected record surge of 931,179 tons was largely due to delayed May shipments caused by unfavorable weather. Thailand continues to be the main player in Southeast Asia given its exportable supplies and competitive prices.
Indonesia Continues to Ban Imports: The government-imposed import ban has reportedly been very successful and is expected to remain in effect until August 1, 2004. A decision to extend or lift the ban beyond that date will depend on the government's review of stocks and market prices, although BULOG reportedly has outstanding contracts to import 300,000- 400,000 tons of Thai rice for delivery in November and December. Presidential elections are currently underway.
International: World prices continued to soften this month as demand has eased with China's continued absence from the market. Thai 100B is currently quoted at $230 per ton, FOB, off $5 over the month. Viet prices have also weakened with increased supplies from the summer-autumn crop becoming available. Viet 5% is currently quoted at $228 per ton, FOB, easing $3 through the month. India's 5% is steady at $255 per ton, FOB, as the government's subsidy policy remains uncertain
Domestic: With U.S. #2/4 long grain milled rice currently quoted at $406 per ton, FOB, the spread between U.S. and Thai prices has narrowed to $176 per ton compared to $193 last month. Price quotes for U.S. #1/4 medium grain milled rice from California are quoted at $430 per ton, bulk, ex-spout Sacramento.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004
Note: The rice consumption and stocks series for Japan are revised from 1989/90 to 2004/05 based in part on official stocks information from the Government of Japan and further analysis by USDA. Additionally, the rice consumption and stocks series for Thailand are revised from 1999/2000 to 2004/05 based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Bangkok and further analysis by USDA.
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