Grain: World Markets and Trade, January 2004

Grain: World Markets and Trade
Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series
FG 01-04
January 2004

As production has recovered from last year’s dismal harvest, Canadian grain exports are expected to nearly double. Wheat exports are currently estimated to rebound from 9.4 million tons (a 30-year low) to 16.0 million with expanding sales to many traditional markets in Latin America and Asia. There are indications that China will return as a major importer of Canadian wheat. Furthermore, there are greater opportunities in the Mediterranean area due to less European export competition and greater EU and East European demand for high-quality imports. Sales of spring wheat to the EU and durum to Italy have skyrocketed, already surpassing all of last year.

A sharp recovery in the barley harvest and less competition from Europe will help Canadian exports return to a more normal 2.0 million tons, after recording their smallest export program in 40 years. Recent years’ short crops have kept Canada out of the world’s largest barley market, Saudi Arabia. This year, with feed grain shortages in both the EU and Ukraine and significantly reduced exports to the Middle East, Canada is shipping to Saudi Arabia for the first time in 3 years.