Dwindling wheat exports from the European Union and Russia have provided greater opportunities for the United States in North and Sub-Saharan Africa. Sales to Egypt in particular have soared, with commitments year-to-date at 2.4 million tons - nearly triple last year’s low level. Sales into other North African markets such as Morocco have also begun to expand, albeit on a much smaller scale. North African imports are set to grow during the second half of the year because domestic supplies from large harvests are running out. While last year wheat exports from the EU and Russia accounted for two-thirds of North African imports (nearly 12 million tons), this year they will be much smaller due to short crops.

U.S. sales into Sub-Saharan Africa are also proceeding at a faster pace, and should continue to be buoyed by reduced European competition. Sales to Nigeria (the largest HRW market last year) have increased significantly as domestic consumption has expanded. South Africa, which has experienced its worst crop in a decade and will need record imports, has also turned to the United States with purchases of nearly 300,000 tons. Since the EU supplied over 40 percent of Sub-Saharan wheat import needs last year (almost 4 million tons), more opportunities should arise throughout the region. Total U.S. wheat exports are currently expected to climb to 30 million tons this year, an 8-year high, and sales to Africa will be the major reason.