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WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Year-to-Year Changes: Global trade in 2004 is estimated at 26.2 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last year’s estimate. Global production in 2003/04 is estimated at 390.6 million tons (milled basis), up 11 million tons from 2002/03. Global ending stocks in 2003/04 are estimated at 85.1 million tons, 21.4 million tons below 2002/03; this reduction is mainly in China and India. Global consumption in 2003/04 is estimated at 412.0 million tons.
Price: Export price quotes have eased over the past 4 weeks. Thai 100B decreased $7 and is currently quoted at $200 per ton (FOB). This is due in large part to the conclusion of the government intervention purchases and a weak baht. Prices in Vietnam are virtually unchanged since a month ago; Viet 5% is down $1 to $179 per ton. India’s 5% quote has been flat for the month and is at $192 per ton. Recent reports from India indicate that the Government could slow the pace of exports due to internal transportation problems.
There continues to be a $100 spread between U.S. #2/4 and Thai 100B. The price quote for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 is up $6 at $302 per ton (FOB).
Trade Changes in 2004
Selected Exporters
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United States is up 100,000 tons to 2.8 million based on expected continued strong demand in major U.S. markets, particularly rough rice markets.·
Thailand is up 250,000 tons to 8.25 million as Nigeria’s demand for parboiled rice is expected to remain strong in 2004.
Selected Importers
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Brazil is down 150,000 tons to 850,000 based on the projected increase in production.·
Cuba is lowered 50,000 tons to 550,000.·
Nigeria is up 250,000 tons to 1.0 million based on expectations regarding domestic use and supply.
Trade Changes in 2003
Selected Exporters
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Egypt is up 100,000 tons to 700,000 based on pace to date and increased exports to Turkey.·
Thailand is up 250,000 tons to 7.75 million based on smaller near-term availability of U.S. rice in the Western Hemisphere. Recently, Thailand sold 25,000 tons of 100B to Brazil; trade sources indicate another 25,000 to 50,000 tons could be contracted soon.·
Uruguay is up 100,000 tons to 700,000 based on export pace to date.
Selected Importers
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Bangladesh is up 300,000 tons to 1.0 million based on decreased production. Increased border trade with India and Burma is expected to fill demand.·
Cuba is down 100,000 tons to 500,000 based on import pace to date.·
Turkey is up 100,000 tons to 350,000 based on larger purchases from the United States and Egypt.
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