Grain: World Markets and Trade
Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series
Won't Reach New Heights
As U.S., India Supplies Are Tight
The forecast for 2004 global rice trade is 25.9 million tons, down approximately 1.0 million tons, or nearly 4 percent from a year earlier, based on reduced exportable supplies mostly in the United States, but also India and Burma. Global consumption continues to outpace production thereby causing further reduction in stocks and continued strong import demand.
The U.S. rice supply and demand situation has changed radically since July 2002. Over the past year, rice supplies tightened on unexpected strong demand from Latin America, specifically Venezuela and Brazil, and food aid donations to Iraq. U.S. prices have responded to the subsequent drastic reduction in stocks by surging about $85 since last July. With smaller stocks and less production forecast for 2003/04, the market premium between U.S. and global prices is expected to widen. Consequently, U.S. exports are forecast to drop about 30 percent from 3.7 million tons in 2003 to 2.7 million in 2004. This reduction is expected to be in milled rice exports (commercial and concessional). The United States will likely continue to fulfill rough rice demand to its traditional Western Hemisphere markets, as it is the only major supplier.
Complete Grain Report in PDF: Text and Tables
All Grain Summary Tables: Foreign Countries and US Data
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
Historical Data Tables: Selected Regions and Countries
Notice to readers:
The Grain: World Markets and Trade circular series no longer includes a printed version of the Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries. Beginning with the January 2003 publication, these historical tables will be available only electronically. The historical tables, along with an electronic version of the Grain: World Markets and Trade circular are available via the FAS website (http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/). The printed version of the circular will continue to include the Summary Tables and the Situation and Outlook reports.
General Footnotes for Grain Tables
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003