WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Year-to-Year Changes: World wheat trade in 2003/04 is forecast at 98.2 million tons, down 6.6 million tons from 2002/03. Global production is down 2.6 million tons, while consumption is estimated down 7.0 million tons. Global stocks are therefore expected to fall by 28.5 million tons to 136.6 million, the lowest level since 1989/90.
Changes from Last Month: The global wheat trade forecast for 2003/04 is up marginally from last month. Global imports are up slightly due to increased purchases by Russia, Ukraine and others. Smaller exports from India and Eastern Europe are overshadowed by exports from Australian, Canada, and Russia. Global production is down 8.1 million tons with smaller crop expectations in Australia, India, Ukraine and Eastern Europe. Ending stocks for 2003/04 are forecast higher because of a bigger U.S. crop.
Price: Early June export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $135/MT, down $17 from last month.
2003/2004 Trade Changes
· Australia up 500,000 tons to 14.0 million as a stocks drawdown largely offsets smaller prospective production.
· Canada up 500,000 tons to 15.0 million due to less export competition.
· Russia up 1.0 million tons to 2.0 million due stronger import demand by nearby countries.
· Eastern Europe down 600,000 tons to 1.7 million with lower projected production.
· Morocco down 700,000 tons to 1.7 million as a greater share of domestic needs are provided by a near record crop.
· Russia up 500,000 tons to 1.0 million.
· Ukraine up 400,000 tons to 1.0 million due to a smaller crop.
2002/2003 Trade Changes
· Australia up 500,000 tons to 11.0 million based on the export pace.
· Russia up 500,000 tons to 13.0 million based on the export pace.
· Ukraine down 800,000 tons to 6.7 million due to sharply higher internal prices.
· United States up 250,000 tons to 2.0 million based on the import pace.
· Iran down 300,000 tons to 1.5 million based on the import pace.
· European Union up 500,000 tons to 11.0 million based on import licenses.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
Adobe Acrobat Format
Microsoft Excel Format
Return to Table of Contents