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WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Year-to-Year Changes: World coarse grain trade in 2003/04 is up 1.6 million tons from last year to 101.7 million. Ending stocks are forecast to drop over 18 million tons to 122.2 million, largely due to a drawdown of China’s corn stocks. The global stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to be 13.3 percent, the lowest since 1973/74. World consumption is forecast to rise by more than 26 million tons to 921.4 million. Compared to 2002/03, global corn trade is little changed at 75.5 million tons. U.S. exports are forecast to recover by 6.0 million tons to 47.0 million tons.
Changes from Last Month: Global coarse grain trade in 2003/04 is basically unchanged, but trade in 2002/03 is forecast down more than 500,000 tons, mainly due to reduced barley exports from Russia and Ukraine. A reduction in U.S. corn 2002/03 exports is offset by increases in Argentina and Brazil’s exports.
2003/04 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
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South Africa corn exports down 200,000 tons to 1.0 million due to uncompetitive prices and reduced regional import demand.·
Ukraine corn up 300,000 tons to 1.3 million due to a higher production forecast. Barley is down 500,000 tons to 2.5 million because of reduced production prospects.·
EU barley up 500,000 tons to 5.0 million because of reduced competition from Ukraine.
Selected Importers
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Romania barley doubles to 200,000 tons due to a slashed production forecast.
2002/03 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
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United States corn drops 1.0 million tons to 41.0 million due to the feeble pace of exports.·
Argentina corn up 500,000 tons to 12.5 million based on strong sales.·
Brazil corn up 500,000 tons to 3.0 million due to higher-than-expected production.·
U.S. barley up 100,000 tons to 650,000 based on the pace to date.·
Australia barley up 200,000 tons to 1.7 million based on stronger-than-expected shipments to date.·
Russia and Ukraine barley down 300,000 tons and 500,000 tons to 3.2 million and 2.7 million, respectively, due to tightened supplies and rapidly rising prices.
Selected Importers
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Chile corn down 200,000 tons to 1.2 million based on the slack pace.·
Indonesia corn up 200,000 tons to 1.6 million due to strong feed demand.·
Russia corn down 200,000 tons to 100,000 based on a lackluster pace.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
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