Grain: World Markets and Trade
Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series
FG 05-03
May 2003 

2003/04 Global Wheat & Coarse Grain Outlook

TRADITIONAL SUPPLIERS REGAIN SHARE 
OF A SHRINKING WHEAT MARKET

World wheat trade is forecast to shrink 7 mmt with new restrictions on imports by the European Union and better crop prospects in North Africa. That leaves exporters fighting for shares of a smaller market. For Russia and Ukraine, winterkill has sharply lowered production prospects and will reduce exportable supplies. Conversely, better crop prospects among traditional exporters such as Australia, Canada, the United States, and Argentina should mean greater exportable supplies and expanding market shares.

GLOBAL CORN STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO DROPS 
TO HISTORICALLY LOW LEVELS

The global corn stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to drop to its lowest level in nearly 30 years, despite a record world production forecast. Consequently, shortfalls in any of the major producing/exporting countries will exacerbate a tight supply situation and cause prices to firm. U.S. exports are forecast to rebound as China’s exports decline.

Complete Grain Report in PDF: Text and Tables

All Grain Summary Tables: Foreign Countries and US Data

• Adobe Acrobat Format
• Excel Spreadsheet Format

Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data

• Wheat                [Text and Data Links]    [PDF]
• Rice                   [Text and Data Links]    [PDF]
• Coarse Grains  [Text and Data Links]   [PDF]

Historical Data Tables: Selected Regions and Countries

• Adobe Acrobat Format
• Excel Spreadsheet Format

Circular Modifications:

       The following changes are effective with this May 2003 Circular:

• Countries were either added or deleted from the Situation and Outlook tables to more accurately reflect the major players involved in global grain trade.
  
  

• Data series have been constructed for Eritrea barley, corn, millet, sorghum, and wheat from 1993/94 to 2003/04. Ethiopia data have been revised over the same time period and no longer include Eritrea.
  
  

• Bhutan has been moved from South Asia region to Other Asia in order to conform to the standard regional country groupings. These are derived from Schedule C, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division Classification Schedules for use in compiling U.S. export and import statistics.
  
  

• Serbia has been renamed "Serbia and Montenegro" and Zaire is now shown as "Congo, Democratic Rep of the" (Democratic Republic of the Congo) in order to conform to current U.S. Department of State use.

Notice to readers: 
The Grain: World Markets and Trade circular series no longer includes a printed version of the Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries.  Beginning with the January 2003 publication, these historical tables will be available only electronically.  The historical tables, along with an electronic version of the Grain: World Markets and Trade circular are available via the FAS website (http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/).  The printed version of the circular will continue to include the Summary Tables and the Situation and Outlook reports.

General Footnotes for Grain Tables

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Data in this report is available in both Adobe Acrobat and Lotus 123 formats. You may need to Get the Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Download the trade tables in Lotus 123 version 3 format. Please note that some versions of Netscape Navigator will change the filename extension; if this happens, you MUST rename the file to .wk3 to access it.

Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003