WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Year-to-Year Changes: Global trade in 2003 is estimated at 26.4 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from last year’s estimate. Global production in 2002/03 is estimated at 381.1 million tons (milled basis), down 16.1 million tons from 2001/02; this can be primarily attributed to a drop in Indian production due to a weak monsoon. Global ending stocks in 2002/03 are estimated at 107.1 million tons, 27.7 million tons below 2001/02, with revisions mainly in India. Global consumption in 2002/03 is estimated at 408.8 million tons.
Price: Price quotes for Thai 100B softened $5 this month and are currently quoted at $199 per ton (FOB). In Vietnam, prices have been relatively flat, only fluctuating plus or minus $1 for the past 3 months. Currently, Viet 5% is quoted at $171 per ton (FOB). In India, the government slightly increased the price at which FCI stocks are sold to exporters. India’s 5% remains more or less flat and is quoted at $167 per ton.
The spread between U.S. #2/4 and similar Asian qualities increased substantially over the past few weeks. The export price quote for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 is up $44 from last month and is currently quoted at $252 per ton (FOB). The recent jump in quotes is mostly driven by the recent tender for 25,000 tons of milled rice for food aid to Iraq. To a lesser extent, the boost is based on anticipation of additional business to Iraq. The price quote for California medium grain #1/4 strengthened another $10 this month to $300 per ton (bulk, ex-spout Sacramento).
Trade Changes in 2003
·Pakistan is up 300,000 tons to 1.4 million due to higher production estimates.
·Thailand is down 250,000 tons to 7.5 million due to smaller demand in some key markets, such as Iran and Nigeria.
·Vietnam is down 250,000 tons to 4.0 million based on pace to date and impediments to trade with key markets in the Middle East.
·Iran is down 250,000 tons to 1.25 million based on sufficient domestic supplies.
·Nigeria is down 200,000 tons to 1.5 million due to sufficient domestic supplies and a new import duty calculation that will discourage trade.
Trade Changes in 2002
·Argentina and Pakistan reflect final, year-end trade data.
·Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, and Yemen reflect final, year-end trade data.
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