WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Year-to-Year Changes: Global trade in 2003 is estimated at 26.7 million tons, down 1.1 million tons from last year’s estimate. Global production in 2002/03 is estimated at 382.1 million tons (milled basis), down 15.0 million tons from 2001/02; this can primarily be attributed to a drop in Indian production due to a weak monsoon. Global ending stocks in 2002/03 are estimated at 107.8 million tons, 26.6 million tons below revised 2001/02, with revisions mainly in China and India. Global consumption in 2002/03 is estimated at 408.6 million tons.
Price: Price quotes for Thai 100B strengthened $7 this month and are currently quoted at $204 per ton (FOB). Meanwhile, in Vietnam, increased demand from buyers in Southeast Asia offset the increased supplies of rice due to the harvest; currently, Viet 5% remains steady and is quoted at $170 per ton (FOB). The uncertain availability of rail transport in India is forcing exporters to use trucks; export price quotes increased $6 to $166 per ton.
The export price quote for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 is up $6 from last month and is currently quoted at $208 per ton (FOB). Additionally, the price quote for California medium grain #1/4 strengthened $10 to $290 per ton (bulk, ex-spout Sacramento).
Trade Changes in 2003
·Bangladesh up 100,000 tons to 500,000 based on a drop in production.
Trade Changes in 2002
·Changes made to the following countries reflect final, year-end trade data: Australia, Burma, India, and Pakistan.
· Changes made to the following countries reflect final, year-end trade data: Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Senegal, Singapore, and Uzbekistan.
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