Grain: World Markets and Trade
Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series
Corn Competition Gets Tougher
Note: This analysis does not
Argentina and Brazil pose challenges to U.S. corn exports. Price sensitivity in North Africa--where the markets of Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia total 8.6 million tons--could mean a dramatic shift away from U.S. to cheaper South American corn.
Egypt is the largest importer in the region and has traditionally bought 80 percent of its corn from the United States, with Argentina filling in most of the rest. In 2001/02 the United States increased its market share as Argentina’s exports declined because of financial and economic difficulties. However, the current trade year sees Egypt buying more Argentine corn. From October through December, Argentina has maintained an aggressive export pace in tandem with expanded soy meal shipments.
Meanwhile, Brazil has become a significant player in the region where it had almost no presence a year earlier. It has dominated Morocco’s corn market since last October. The United States has traditionally covered 80 percent of Morocco’s market, but so far this year has not made any sales there. Both Argentina and Brazil have made greater inroads into Algeria and Tunisia. U.S. corn exports will face tough competition from South American exporters in the coming months.
Complete Grain Report in PDF: Text and Tables
All Grain Summary Tables: Foreign Countries and US Data
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
Historical Data Tables: Selected Regions and Countries
FAS Grain Trade Data and Seed: This report incorporates 1976/77 to 2001/02 historical revisions that include seed in USDA’s estimates of United States grain trade. A spreadsheet containing the old and revised exports and imports can be found at: Circular Seed Tables [Excel file] [PDF]
For a number of years, USDA has excluded seed in its international trade year import/export forecasts for U.S. grains (July/June for wheat, Oct/Sept for coarse grains). This has led to some inconsistency with how we report trade in grain because we include seed for all countries, other than the United States, in both local and trade year data. USDA reports already include seed in local marketing year trade (and production) estimates for the United States.
Notice to readers:
The Grain: World Markets and Trade circular series no longer includes a printed version of the Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries. Beginning with the January 2003 publication, these historical tables will be available only electronically. The historical tables, along with an electronic version of the Grain: World Markets and Trade circular are available via the FAS website (http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/). The printed version of the circular will continue to include the Summary Tables and the Situation and Outlook reports.
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