WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Year-to-Year Changes: Global trade in 2003 is projected at 26.7 million tons, down 1.1 million ton from last year’s estimate. Global production in 2002/03 is projected at 381.7 million tons (milled basis), down 16.8 million tons from 2001/02. Global ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 107.5 million tons, 26.5 million tons below revised 2001/02. Global consumption in 2002/03 is forecast at 408.2 million tons.
Price: Over the past month, the export price quote for Thai 100b fell $13 from $210 to $197 per ton (FOB) due to weak demand, lower transportation costs, and a weaker dollar. In recent weeks, the quote for Viet 5% moved sideways but is down $10 from last month as the Lua Mua harvest is near completion; it is currently quoted at $170 per ton (FOB). The quote for Indian 5% is steady at $160 per ton. However, as India faces weak demand for low-quality white rice, the trade anticipates that the government will further review its export support program.
Price: The export price quote for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 is down about $5 from last month and is currently quoted at $202 per ton (FOB). In contrast, the price quote for California medium grain #1/4 strengthened $5 to $280 per ton (bulk, ex-spout Sacramento).
Trade Changes in 2003
·Bangladesh down 100,000 tons based on an anticipated decrease in import demand.
Trade Changes in 2002
·United States up 150,000 tons to 3.25 million based on pace to date.
·China, Thailand, Uruguay, and Vietnam are revised to reflect year-end trade data.
·Argentina and the EU are revised to reflect near year-end trade data.
·China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, North Korea, and Peru are revised to reflect year-end trade data.
·Bangladesh, Brazil, Haiti, and Russia are revised to reflect near year-end trade data.
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