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WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Year-to-Year Changes: Global trade in 2003 is projected at 26.7 million tons, down 1.1 million ton from last year’s estimate. Global production in 2002/03 is projected at 381.7 million tons (milled basis), down 16.8 million tons from 2001/02. Global ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 107.5 million tons, 26.5 million tons below revised 2001/02. Global consumption in 2002/03 is forecast at 408.2 million tons.
Price: Over the past month, the export price quote for Thai 100b fell $13 from $210 to $197 per ton (FOB) due to weak demand, lower transportation costs, and a weaker dollar. In recent weeks, the quote for Viet 5% moved sideways but is down $10 from last month as the Lua Mua harvest is near completion; it is currently quoted at $170 per ton (FOB). The quote for Indian 5% is steady at $160 per ton. However, as India faces weak demand for low-quality white rice, the trade anticipates that the government will further review its export support program.
Price: The export price quote for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 is down about $5 from last month and is currently quoted at $202 per ton (FOB). In contrast, the price quote for California medium grain #1/4 strengthened $5 to $280 per ton (bulk, ex-spout Sacramento).
Trade Changes in 2003
Selected Importers
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Bangladesh down 100,000 tons based on an anticipated decrease in import demand.
Trade Changes in 2002
Selected Exporters
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United States up 150,000 tons to 3.25 million based on pace to date.·
China, Thailand, Uruguay, and Vietnam are revised to reflect year-end trade data.·
Argentina and the EU are revised to reflect near year-end trade data.
Selected Importers
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China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, North Korea, and Peru are revised to reflect year-end trade data.·
Bangladesh, Brazil, Haiti, and Russia are revised to reflect near year-end trade data.
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