SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Year-to-Year Changes: World coarse grain trade in
2002/03 is down 1 million tons from a year earlier to nearly 101 million tons.
Stocks are forecast to fall 27 million tons to 150 million. Chinese and U.S.
corn together account for over half of global coarse grain stocks. Global
stocks-to-use ratio will be 16.9 percent, the lowest since 1976/77. Compared to
last year, global corn trade is increased nearly 2 million tons to 76
million in 2002/03. U.S. exports
are unchanged from last year, in terms of tonnage, but market share is down
Changes from January Forecast: Since last month, global coarse grain trade is up
500,000 tons to nearly 101 million tons, led by higher imports by Japan and
South Korea. Exports for Argentina and the EU are forecast to rise. For the
fourth consecutive month, the U.S. corn export estimate is again reduced
by 1 million tons in the face of stronger competition from Argentina and
Ukraine. However, overall corn trade will increase by 400,000 tons due to higher
exports for Argentina and Ukraine.
2002/03 Trade Changes
- U.S. corn drops another 1.0 million tons to
47.0 million because of strong competition and the dismal pace of exports.
corn is up 1.0 million tons to 10.0 million due to better crop
corn is doubled to 600,000 tons based on an unexpectedly strong export
barley is down 100,000 tons to 400,000 because of higher domestic
barley is cut by 500,000 tons to 3.5 million because of slowed exports. EU
barley is up the same amount as the export license pace has accelerated
in recent weeks with the Commissionís decision to subsidize exports.
- Argentina sorghum is up 200,000 tons to 600,000
because of better prospects for new crop supplies.
- Canada oats is down 100,000 tons to 750,000 because of higher domestic consumption
and the slow pace of exports, with EU oats up a like amount to
a record high 1.3 million tons.
Korea corn is increased 500,000 tons to 9.0 million as a result of
strong feed demand.
corn is halved to 300,000 tons due to higher local production.
- Israel barley is down 100,000 tons because of
stagnant import demand.
- Japan sorghum
is up 200,000 tons to 1.3 million as exportable supplies from Argentina have
increased and purchases of U.S. sorghum remain on pace.
2001/02 Trade Changes
- Kazakstan barley down 57,000 tons to 393,000
based on final trade data.
- EU oats up
50,000 tons to 650,000 based on increased late-season exports to the United
- Colombia corn rises 211,000 tons to 1.911
million based on final trade data.
- Saudi Arabia barley up 100,000 tons to 5.75
million as a result of a strong late-season import pace.
- Tunisia barley
down 100,000 tons to 700,000 based on a slow late-season pace.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
Microsoft Excel Format
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003