WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global trade in 2003 is projected at 26.7 million tons, down 400,000 tons from the estimate for the previous year. Global production in 2002/03 is projected at 380.3 million tons (milled basis), down 17.0 million tons from 2001/02. Global ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 105.1 million tons, about 28 million tons below revised 2001/02. Global consumption in 2002/03 is forecast at 408 million tons.
Thai 100B jumped $15 since last month’s report and is currently quoted at $203 per ton (FOB), resulting from higher warehouse demand and increased transportation costs due to a strike in the domestic trucking industry. At the same time, prices for Viet 5% dropped $4 per ton, which is currently quoted at $179 (FOB), a result of weak demand in anticipation of the upcoming harvest.The export price quote for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 also softened this month, sliding $6 to $202 per ton (FOB). In contrast, the price quote for California medium grain #1/4 strengthened $10 to $275 per ton (bulk, ex-spout Sacramento).
Trade Changes in 2003
· Egypt down 100,000 tons to 400,000 due to a lack of price competitiveness.
· North Korea up 50,000 tons to 500,000 due to larger food aid shipments from South Korea.
Trade Changes in 2002
· Australiadown 50,000 tons to 350,000 based on slower exports during the fourth quarter.
· Egypt down 100,000 tons to 400,000 due to less competitive prices resulting from termination of government export programs.
·Thailand up 200,000 tons to 7.2 million based on statistics released by the Government of Thailand.
· Vietnam up 100,000 tons to 3.2 million based on government statistics.
·North Korea up 100,000 tons to 500,000 based on increased food aid shipments from South Korea.
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