SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade in
2002/03 is down over 1 million tons from a year earlier to 100 million tons. The
gap between global consumption and global production is expected to more than
double, lowering carryout stocks 27 million tons to 149 million. U.S.
corn, China corn, and EU barley and rye are forecast to comprise two-thirds of
world coarse grain stocks. Global
stocks-to-use ratio will be 16.8 percent, the lowest since 1975/76.
Compared to last year, global corn trade increases 1
million tons to 75 million in 2002/03. U.S.
exports are forecast to increase to 48 million tons, maintaining the same market
share of 63 percent as last year.
2002/03 Trade Changes
- U.S. corn drops 1.0 million tons to 48.0
million based on increased competition from China.
- Brazil corn up 300,000 tons to 1.8 million due
to higher anticipated production.
- China corn increases 1.0 million tons to 11.0
million based on a strong export pace.
- South Africa corn is reduced 300,000 tons to
1.2 million as a result of smaller crop prospects.
- U.S. sorghum is slashed 1.2 million tons to 5.1
million based on lower production and higher than expected domestic use.
- Argentina sorghum is
up 100,000 tons to 400,000 due to reduced competition from the United
- U.S. barley down 100,000 tons to 400,000 based
on a slack import pace, caused in part by tight Canadian supplies.
- Australia sorghum is dropped 100,000 tons to
50,000 because of higher U.S. prices and more UK feed quality wheat imports.
- Japan and Mexico sorghum are down
300,000 and 600,000 tons, respectively (to 1.1 million and 4.0 million), due
to lower U.S. availabilities.
- Brazil sorghum down 100,000 tons to 100,000
because of the slow pace of imports.
- EU rye
increases 100,000 tons to 200,000 based on import licenses to date.
2001/02 Trade Changes
- Kazakstan barley down 57,000 tons to 393,000
based on final trade data.
- EU oats up
50,000 tons to 650,000 based on increased late-season exports to the United
- Colombia corn rises 211,000 tons to 1.911
million based on final trade data.
- Saudi Arabia barley up 100,000 tons to 5.75
million as a result of a strong late-season import pace.
- Tunisia barley
down 100,000 tons to 700,000 based on a slow late-season pace.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
Microsoft Excel Format
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003