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WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global trade in 2003 is projected at 26.7 million tons, virtually unchanged from the previous year and last month’s forecast. Global production in 2002/03 is projected at 380.3 million tons (milled basis), down 17 million tons from revised 2001/02. Global ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 104.9 million tons, 27.5 million tons below revised 2001/02. Global consumption in 2002/03 is forecast at 407.8 million tons.
Over the past five weeks, export price quotes out of Southeast Asia softened; Thai 100B fell $5 and is currently quoted at $188 per ton (FOB), while Vietnam 5% dropped $3 and is currently quoted at $183. Indian 5% is presently quoted at $165 but expected to increase January 1, 2003, based on a government decision.
The export price quote for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 also softened this month, falling $19 to $208 per ton (FOB). In contrast, the price quote for California medium grain #1/4 strengthened $12 to $265 per ton (bulk, ex-spout Sacramento).
Trade Changes in 2003
Selected Exporters
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United States up 200,000 tons to 3.4 million tons based on anticipated strong global import demand, primarily from Brazil, and a likely increase in exports to some medium grain markets.·
Thailand and Vietnam up 250,000 tons to 7.25 and 4.25 million, respectively, with strong global import demand and an expected decrease in Indian exports in 2003.·
Burma down 500,000 tons to 1.0 million due to less available supplies.·
Australia down 200,000 tons to 300,000 based on a substantial reduction in the crop.
Selected Importers
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United States down 25,000 tons to 390,000 based on smaller imports by Puerto Rico from Australia.·
Brazil up 250,000 tons to 800,000 based on dwindling high-quality domestic grain supplies and an anticipated increase in import demand.·
Cuba up 50,000 tons to 600,000 based on expectations of continued strong imports in 2003.
Trade Changes in 2002
Selected Exporters
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Argentina down 75,000 tons to 275,000 based on pace to date.·
India up 100,000 tons to 6.6 million based on pace to date.·
Thailand up 500,000 tons to 7.0 million stronger-than-expected pace to date.
Selected Importers
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Brazil down 75,000 tons to 525,000 based on pace to date.·
Cuba up 50,000 tons to 600,000 based on pace to date.·
Russia up 75,000 tons to 350,000 with stronger-than-expected shipments from China.·
South Africa up 100,000 tons to 750,000 based on pace to date and strong parboiled shipments from India.
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