WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global trade in 2003 is projected at 26.6 million tons, virtually unchanged from the previous year but up 450,000 tons from last monthís forecast. Global production in 2002/03 is projected at 381.8 million tons (milled basis), down 14.9 million tons from revised 2001/02. Global ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 106.1 million tons, 25.9 million tons below revised 2001/02. Global consumption in 2002/03 is forecast at 407.6 million tons.
Since last month, Thailand and Vietnamís export price quotes diverged as Thailandís export price quote for 100B was $193 per ton (FOB), up $4 from the previous month, and Vietnamís export price quote for 5% eased $4 to $183 per ton (FOB) due to a seasonal boost in supplies.
The export price quote for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 strengthened $4 to $227 per ton (FOB), primarily due to tightened milling capacity. In contrast, the price quote for California medium grain #1/4 slipped $2 to $253 per ton (ex-spout Sacramento).
Trade Changes in 2003
∑United States up 100,000 tons to 3.2 million tons resulting from stronger global import demand.
∑Vietnam up 200,000 tons to 4.0 million due to larger production.
∑Pakistan up 100,000 tons to 1.1 million based on higher global import demand.
∑Argentina up 50,000 tons to 350,000 due to a larger crop and greater regional import demand.
∑Brazil up 150,000 tons to 550,000 due to smaller supplies.
∑China down 100,000 tons to 300,000 based on lower import demand for fragrant rice.
∑Cote díIvoire up 50,000 tons to 650,000 due to smaller supplies.
∑Nigeria up 200,000 tons to 1.7 million based on higher 2002 imports and expectations of continued strong imports in 2003.
∑Nicaragua down 25,000 tons to 75,000 due to higher production.
∑Philippines up 400,000 tons to 1.2 million due to higher-than-expected import demand.
Trade Changes in 2002
∑Burma down 100,000 tons to 1.0 million based on pace to date.
∑China up 250,000 tons to 1.75 million due to pace to date.
∑Vietnam up 300,000 tons to 3.1 million attributed to a larger crop and pace to date.
∑Nigeria up 200,000 tons to 1.7 million due to higher-than-expected import demand.
∑Cote díIvoire up 50,000 tons to 625,000 based on smaller production.
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