WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade in 2002/03 is nearly unchanged from a year earlier at 101.7 million tons. The gap between global consumption and global production is expected to more than double, lowering carryout stocks 30.7 million tons to approximately 143 million. U.S. corn, China corn, and EU barley and rye are forecast to comprise more than two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.
Global corn trade is virtually unchanged from last year at 75.8 million tons in 2002/03. U.S. exports are forecast to rise as a result of reduced competition and steady imports.
World barley trade drops 1.6 million tons to 15.6 million in 2002/03. The 2.7 million ton decline in Australia’s exports, due to decimated production, is only partially offset by Russia and Ukraine’s combined increase of 1.8 million.
[Graphic: China Barley Imports]
After 3 years of growth, China’s imports of barley appear to have leveled off. The world’s largest malting barley importer showed a sluggish import pace in late-season 2001/02. Despite reports of China’s dynamic growth in the brewing industry, there is evidence that much of the growth is concentrated in the low-end of the sector, which uses more adjuncts (additives such as rice, maize, etc.) than high-end brewers. It remains to be seen whether China’s slowdown in import demand is an indication of the brewing industry reaching a plateau or a result of rising prices of malting barley.
2002/03 Trade Changes
·U.S. corn drops 1 million tons to 50 million based on increased competition.
·Argentina corn rises 500,000 tons to 8.5 million as a result of higher forecasted production.
·China corn increases 500,000 tons to 10 million due to large supplies and robust regional demand.
·South Africa corn decreases 200,000 tons to 1.5 million as high domestic prices constrain exports.
·Serbia corn rises 250,000 tons to 300,000 based on increased sales resulting from high international prices.
·Australia barley is slashed by half to 1 million tons due to a sharp drop in production.
·Russia barley rises 300,000 tons to 3.5 million and Ukraine barley increases 600,000 tons to 4 million based on ample supplies and aggressive pricing.
·Australia sorghum falls 350,000 tons to 150,000 as local production is utilized by the domestic feed sector.
·U.S. sorghum soars 700,000 tons to 6.3 million as a result of increased demand from Mexico and reduced competition from Australia.
·Mexico corn jumps 500,000 tons to 6.5 million based on reduced domestic feed supplies.
·China and Japan barley drop 200,000 tons each due to lower demand.
·Japan sorghum falls 200,000 tons to 1.4 million due to tighter Australian supplies and high prices relative to corn.
·Mexico sorghum rises 400,000 tons to 4.6 million as a result of sharply lower production.
·Australia sorghum rises 150,000 tons to 150,000 in order to compensate for plummeting domestic feed supplies.
2001/02 Trade Changes
·U.S. corn declines 500,000 tons to 47 million based on very slow late-season shipments.
·China corn rises 111,000 tons to 8.611 million based on final trade data.
·Ukraine barley increases 450,000 tons to 3.15 million due to the sky-rocketing pace in recent months.
·Canada corn rises 200,000 tons to 3.8 million due to soaring, late-season purchases.
·Chile corn down 200,000 tons to 1.2 million and Colombia and Dominican Republic corn each down 100,000 tons to 1.7 million and 1.1 million, respectively, as a result of lower than anticipated purchases from the United States. In addition,
· Costa Rica corn declines 150,000 tons to 450,000 based on lower than anticipated purchases.
·Israel corn increases 200,000 tons to 1 million due to higher than anticipated imports.
·Taiwan corn declines 300,000 tons to 4.4 million as high prices diminished late-season demand.
·China barley down 287,000 tons to 1.913 million per final import data.
·Saudi Arabia barley up 700,000 tons to 5.5 million due to strong late-season imports from Ukraine.
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