WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2002/03 is forecast to be about 100 million tons, down 8.5 million tons from 2001/02. Global production is forecast down 8.9 million tons but consumption is forecast up 10.2 million tons from the previous year. Global stocks are forecast to fall by 28.4 million tons to the lowest level since 1982/83.
In early October, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $194/MT, up $4 from last month and up nearly $65 from early June. Global production is down 2.8 million tons from last month with smaller crops in the United States, Australia, and Brazil partially offset by a larger crop in Russia. Global consumption is largely unchanged, while ending stocks are forecast down 4.3 million tons from last month due mainly to lower forecast U. S. and Indian stocks. Global wheat trade in 2002/03 is forecast virtually unchanged from last month as increased exports from India, Russia, and the EU offset lower exports from Canada and Australia. Brazilian imports are forecast up 500,000 tons and are partially offset by lower imports by the United States.
2002/2003 Trade Changes
·Australia down 2 million tons to 8 million due to drought-reduced production.
· Canada down 500,000 tons to 9 million due to an unfavorable harvesting conditions and declining quality.
·India up 1 million tons to 6 million due to greater foreign demand for lower-priced supplies and less competition from Australia.
·Russia up by 1 million tons to 5.5 million due to a larger crop and aggressive pricing.
·European Union up 500,000 tons to 15.5 million because of reduced competition from Canada and Australia.
·United States down 200,000 tons to 2 million as spring wheat supplies from Canada tighten.
·Brazil up 500,000 tons to 6.5 million due to a smaller forecast crop.
2001/2002 Trade Changes
·Russia up 672,000 tons to 4.8 million based on final export data.
·European Union up 500,000 to 10.5 million based on exports to date.
·China down 200,000 tons to 1.1 million based on late season trade data.
·European Union up 500,000 tons to 9.5 million due to larger than expected imports from Eastern Europe and Black Sea exporters.
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