WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global trade in 2003 is projected at 26.2 million tons, virtually unchanged from the previous year and up 500,000 tons from last month’s estimate. Global production in 2002/03 is projected at 381.2 million tons (milled basis), down 15.1 million tons from revised 2001/02. Global ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 105.5 million tons, 26.5 million tons below revised 2001/02. Global consumption in 2002/03 is forecast at 407.7 million tons.
Asian export price quotes softened during the past month. In Thailand, export price quotes for 100B have dropped $8 to $189 per ton (FOB) partly due to some sales of government-held stocks. In Vietnam, export price quotes for 5% eased $4 to $187 per ton (FOB) due to a seasonal boost in supplies.
Conversely, the export price quote for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 has strengthened $10 this month to $223 per ton (FOB), while the price quote for California medium grain #1/4 continues sideways at $255 per ton (ex-spout Sacramento).
Trade Changes in 2003
·Pakistan up 200,000 tons to 1.0 million based on higher production.
·Vietnam up 300,000 tons to 3.8 million due to higher expected import demand and expected lower supplies from other major exporters.
·Philippines up 150,000 tons to 800,000 based on larger expected government purchases.
Trade Changes in 2002
·Burma down 100,000 tons to 1.1 million as a result of slower-than-expected pace to date.
·India up 1.0 million tons to a record 6.5 million based on continued large sales and shipments.
·Pakistan up 250,000 tons to 1.5 million attributed to a larger crop.
·Thailand down 500,000 tons to 6.5 million based on lower-than-expected pace to date and continued strong competition from India.
·Uruguay down 50,000 tons to 600,000 based on the slow pace to date.
·Indonesia up 250,000 tons to 3.5 million tons based on the pace to date.
·North Korea up 250,000 tons to 400,000 with more food aid commitments from South Korea.
·Turkey up 25,000 tons to 275,000 based on the pace to date.
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