WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade in 2002/03 is practically unchanged from a year earlier at 101 million tons. The gap between global consumption and global production is expected to more than double, dropping carryout stocks approximately 35 million tons to 134.4 million. U.S. corn, China corn, and EU barley and rye are forecast to comprise more than two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.
Global corn trade is virtually unchanged in 2002/03. U.S. exports will rise as a result of reduced competition and steady imports.
2002/03 Trade Changes
·Australia barley down 500,000 tons to 2 million due to the slashed production forecast.
·EU barley drops 500,000 tons to 4 million in the absence of export subsidies and stronger competition from Russia and Ukraine in feed markets.
· Russia and Ukraine barley increase 200,000 tons each due to ample supplies and competitive prices.
·Mexico corn falls a half million tons to 6 million as a result of lower anticipated consumption.
·South Africa corn rises 300,000 tons to 650,000 as domestic corn is shifted into neighboring, famine-stricken countries.
2001/02 Trade Changes
·U.S. corn declines 1 million tons to 47.5 million as a result of a slow, late-season shipment pace.
·Argentina corn falls 500,000 tons to 8.7 million and Hungary corn contracts 200,000 tons to 2.8 million based on slower than anticipated shipment paces.
·China corn rises 500,000 tons to 8.5 million due to booming late-season shipments.
·Russia barley up 300,000 tons to 2.6 million based on a strong export pace.
·Canada corn soars 400,000 tons to 3.6 million as a result of tight new-crop domestic feed grain supplies.
·Mexico corn plummets 1 million tons to 4 million due to a slow late-season import pace.
·Egypt corn falls 400,000 tons to 4.8 million and Russia corn contracts 200,000 tons to 600,000 based on slow late-season import paces.
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