SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2002/03 is forecast to be 99.7 million tons, down 7.6 million tons from 2001/02. Global production is forecast down 6.3 million tons, but consumption is forecast up 12.5 million tons from the previous year. Global stocks are forecast to fall by 26.1 million tons to the lowest level since 1988/89.

In early September, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $190/MT, up $32 from last month and up nearly $60 from early June. Global production is largely unchanged from last month, as larger crops in Russia, Ukraine, and Iran offset smaller crops in Australia, Canada, and the EU. Global consumption is forecast up 3.7 million tons, while ending stocks are forecast down 3.3 million tons from last month. Global wheat trade in 2002/03 is forecast down 2.7 million tons as reduced imports by China, Iran, Nigeria, and United States more than offset larger imports by the EU and Algeria. Much smaller exports from Australia, Canada, and Turkey are only partially offset by more exports from India, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States.

2002/2003 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States up 1.5 million tons to 26 million because of less competition from Australia and Canada.

•  Australia down 5.5 million tons to 10 million due to drought-reduced production and the expanding use of wheat for feeding.

•  Canada down 2.5 million tons to 9.5 million due to a dry growing season and unfavorable harvesting conditions. 

•  India up 500,000 tons to 5 million due to greater foreign demand for lower priced supplies.

•  Russia up by 2.0 million tons to 4.5 million due to a larger crop and aggressive price competition.

• Ukraine up 2.0 million tons to 6 million because of a larger crop and improved price competitiveness. 

s    Selected Importers

• United States down 600,000 tons to 2.2 million as lower spring wheat imports from Canada are partially countered by increased feed quality wheat.

•  Algeria up 500,000 tons to 4.5 million due to a smaller crop.

• China down 1.0 million tons to 1.0 million because of higher global prices for quality milling wheat.

• EU up 1.5 million tons to 5 million based on the strong import pace of FSU feed quality supplies coupled with the expected need for quality milling wheat imports to replace the German shortfall of quality wheat.

•  Iran down 1.5 million tons to 3.0 million based on a larger than expected crop.

• Nigeria down 200,000 tons to 2.5 million due to sharply higher global wheat prices.

    

  2001/2002 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters 

• United States down 61,000 tons to 26.139 million based on year–end export data.

 Selected Importers

•  Brazil up 300,000 tons to 7 million due to large late season purchases.  

•  Egypt up 500,000 tons to 7 million due to expanded imports from Ukraine and Russia.

• Philippines down 300,000 tons to 3 million because of a slow import pace.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003