WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global production for 2002/03 is down 3.5 million tons from the previous month’s projection at 380.9 million tons (milled basis) and down 15.3 million tons from the revised 2001/02 estimate, mainly due to a reduction in India’s crop. Global stocks are also projected to decline year-to-year, down about 26 million tons to 105.1 million. Consumption is forecast down approximately 3 million tons from last year to 407 million tons, mainly due to a revision in India’s stocks and use projections.
Government intervention purchases in Thailand and changes in India’s export policies strengthened export price quotes over the past month. Since the last report, Thai 100B quotes rose $5 to $197 per ton, while Viet price quotes increased $1 to $191 a ton.
Export price quotes in the domestic market moved up $3 to $213 (FOB) per ton for U.S. long grain #2/4 and $255 per ton (ex-spout Sacramento) for U.S. medium grain #1/4 California.
Trade Changes in 2003
United States down 15,000 tons to 415,000 based on lower import demand.
Cuba imports up 75,000 tons to 550,000 tons.
South Africa imports up 100,000 tons to 650,000 based on higher trade in 2002.
Trade Changes in 2002
United States up 150,000 tons to 3.1 million based on pace to date, large supplies and competitive prices.
Burma down 300,000 tons to 1.2 million based on pace to date.
India up 1 million tons to 5.5 million based on pace to date.
Thailand down 500,000 tons to 7 million due to pace to date.
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