SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
coarse grain trade in 2002/03 is practically unchanged from a year earlier at
102 million tons. The gap between global consumption and global production is
expected to double, dropping carryout stocks approximately 36 million tons to
133.3 million. U.S. corn, China corn, and EU barley and rye are forecast to
comprise more than two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks. Of this amount,
two-thirds are Chinese corn.
corn trade is virtually unchanged in 2002/03. U.S. exports will rise as a result
of reduced competition and steady world imports.
lower barley supplies in Canada will result in a significant rise in imports of
corn. As a result, a higher percentage of U.S. corn will remain within NAFTA
(Chart 1). Meanwhile, Chinese corn and feed-quality wheat from various sources
is taking a larger share of Asian feed markets.
lower barley crops in Australia and Canada will leave the EU and the Black Sea
countries (Ukraine and Russia) as the principal barley suppliers (Chart 2). The
rise of the Black Sea region highlights a changing dynamic in the global feed
barley trade, while the EU remains the major malting barley supplier. For the EU
to compete in the global feed market, domestic prices must fall to world price
levels as dictated by Russia and Ukraine, or the Commission must change its
export policy and approve subsidies.
2002/03 Trade Changes
- Argentina corn
increases 700,000 tons to 8 million based on a larger anticipated crop and
higher global prices.
- Brazil corn
rises 500,000 tons to 1.5 million as strong global prices encourage
- China corn up
1.5 million to 9.5 million tons due to ample supplies and rising world
- Australia barley
plummets 1 million to 2.5 million tons as drought slashes production
- Russia and
Ukraine barley increase by 200,000 tons and 350,000 tons,
respectively, due to expanding supplies and reduced competition.
- U.S. sorghum
shrinks 300,000 tons to 5.6 million based on low crop prospects.
- Canada oats
drops 350,000 tons to 950,000 due to lower production forecast, while EU
oats rises by the same amount to 900,000 based on a larger new crop.
- Canada corn
surges 2.5 million tons to 4.5 million as a result of plummeting domestic
- Mexico corn
rises 500,000 tons to 6.5 million and sorghum decreases 300,000
tons to 4.2 million as a result of low U.S. supplies of sorghum.
- Argentina corn
declines 300,000 tons to 9.2 million as farmers continue to be slow to
market their crop.
- Brazil corn
rises 500,000 tons to 3.9 million due to a recent surge in exports.
- China corn
increases 1 million tons to 8 million based on a continued strong export
- Australia barley drops 200,000 tons to 4 million due to poor new crop
- Canada and Dominican Republic corn each rise 200,000 tons to 3.2 million and 1.2 million,
respectively, due to continued strong demand.
- Japan corn
increases 300,000 tons to 16.3 million as a result of a continued strong
- Malaysia corn rises 200,000 tons to 2.4 million based on
continuing strong demand for cheap Chinese corn.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003