SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade in 2002/03 is practically unchanged from a year earlier at 102 million tons. The gap between global consumption and global production is expected to double, dropping carryout stocks approximately 36 million tons to 133.3 million. U.S. corn, China corn, and EU barley and rye are forecast to comprise more than two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks. Of this amount, two-thirds are Chinese corn.

Global corn trade is virtually unchanged in 2002/03. U.S. exports will rise as a result of reduced competition and steady world imports.

Sharply lower barley supplies in Canada will result in a significant rise in imports of corn. As a result, a higher percentage of U.S. corn will remain within NAFTA (Chart 1). Meanwhile, Chinese corn and feed-quality wheat from various sources is taking a larger share of Asian feed markets.

Drastically lower barley crops in Australia and Canada will leave the EU and the Black Sea countries (Ukraine and Russia) as the principal barley suppliers (Chart 2). The rise of the Black Sea region highlights a changing dynamic in the global feed barley trade, while the EU remains the major malting barley supplier. For the EU to compete in the global feed market, domestic prices must fall to world price levels as dictated by Russia and Ukraine, or the Commission must change its export policy and approve subsidies.

2002/03 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Argentina corn increases 700,000 tons to 8 million based on a larger anticipated crop and higher global prices.

• Brazil corn rises 500,000 tons to 1.5 million as strong global prices encourage exports.

• China corn up 1.5 million to 9.5 million tons due to ample supplies and rising world prices.

• Australia barley plummets 1 million to 2.5 million tons as drought slashes production prospects.

• Russia and Ukraine barley increase by 200,000 tons and 350,000 tons, respectively, due to expanding supplies and reduced competition.

• U.S. sorghum shrinks 300,000 tons to 5.6 million based on low crop prospects.

• Canada oats drops 350,000 tons to 950,000 due to lower production forecast, while EU oats rises by the same amount to 900,000 based on a larger new crop.

Selected Importers

• Canada corn surges 2.5 million tons to 4.5 million as a result of plummeting domestic feed supplies.

• Mexico corn rises 500,000 tons to 6.5 million and sorghum decreases 300,000 tons to 4.2 million as a result of low U.S. supplies of sorghum.

2001/02 Trade Changes

 Selected Exporters             

• Argentina corn declines 300,000 tons to 9.2 million as farmers continue to be slow to market their crop.

• Brazil corn rises 500,000 tons to 3.9 million due to a recent surge in exports.

• China corn increases 1 million tons to 8 million based on a continued strong export pace.

• Australia barley drops 200,000 tons to 4 million due to poor new crop production prospects.

Selected Importers

• Canada and Dominican Republic corn each rise 200,000 tons to 3.2 million and 1.2 million, respectively, due to continued strong demand.

• Japan corn increases 300,000 tons to 16.3 million as a result of a continued strong import pace.

• Malaysia corn rises 200,000 tons to 2.4 million based on continuing strong demand for cheap Chinese corn.

Download the coarse grains tables in:

Adobe Acrobat Format

Microsoft Excel Format

Return to Table of Contents

Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003