SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2002/03 is
forecast to be 102.4 million tons, down 5.2 million tons from 2001/02.
Global production is forecast down 7.3 million tons and consumption up 8
million tons from the previous year. Global
stocks are forecast to fall by 22.6 million tons to the lowest level since
In early August, export
quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $158/MT, up $15 from last month and up
nearly $30 from early June. Global
production is down 8.5 million tons from last month with lower crops in
Australia, Canada, the United States, and the EU only minimally offset by larger
crops in Brazil, Kazakstan, and Uzbekistan. Global consumption is forecast up
0.6 million tons, while ending stocks are forecast down 8.3 million tons from
last month. Global wheat trade in
2002/03 is forecast down 1.6 million tons from last month largely because of
reduced imports in Brazil, Iran, South Korea, and Uzbekistan.
Much smaller exports by Australia and Canada are only partially offset by
more exports from the EU, India, Kazakstan, and Ukraine.
Poor growing conditions in
Canada are expected to reduce
exportable supplies (production and beginning stocks) by more than 6 million
tons from last year and 10 million from just two years ago. As a result, exports, which have been falling since the early
1990s, are forecast at the lowest level in 28 years at a mere 12 million tons.
In contrast, abundant supplies of Kazak wheat will be in greater demand
by North African and Middle Eastern millers.
2002/2003 Trade Changes
- Australia down
1.5 million tons to 15.5 million due to lower expected production
resulting from dry growing conditions.
- Canada down
3 million tons to 12 million based on a significantly smaller expected
- EU exports
up 1.5 million to 15 million due to reduced supplies in major competing
exporters and sharply higher price prospects.
- India up
500,000 tons to 4.5 million based on less export competition in Southeast
Asia and the Middle East.
- Kazakstan up
500,000 tons to 5 million based on improved export prospects resulting
from an expected tighter global supply of quality milling wheat.
- Ukraine up
500,000 tons to 4 million tons because of improved price competitiveness.
down 500,000 tons to 6.5 million due to a larger expected crop.
- South Korea down
400,000 tons to 3.8 million due to large carryin stocks
necessitating fewer milling wheat imports.
- Tunisia down
200,000 tons to 1.8 million due to a lower level of consumption based on
- Uzbekistan down
300,000 tons to 300,000 based on a larger expected crop.
- Argentina up
600,000 tons to 11.6 million due to a strong shipment pace late in the
- Canada up
300,000 tons to 16.8 million tons based on exports to date.
- Kazakstan down
220,000 tons to 3.8 million based on final export data.
- Russia up
200,000 tons to 3.7 million because of large late season shipments to
North Africa and the EU.
down 500,000 tons to 5.5 million based on much smaller than expected
shipments in the final months of the marketing year.
- United States
down 300,000 tons to 26.2 million due to a slowdown in late season
- Israel down
300,000 tons to 1.5 million due to the slow pace of imports.
- Morocco up
200,000 tons to 3 million due to expanded imports from Ukraine and Russia.
- South Korea
down 120,000 tons based on final import figures showing lower than
expected imports of feed quality wheat.
- Tunisia down
200,000 tons to 1.4 million because of a slow import pace.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003