SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global production in 2002/03 is projected at 384.4 million
tons (milled basis), down 10 million tons from last month and 12.3 million tons
below the revised 2001/02 estimate. A
decrease in India's production accounts for virtually all of the 2002/03
revision. Global ending stocks and
consumption continue to move in opposite directions with ending stocks estimated
down 24.4 million tons at 113.4 and consumption up 4.9 million tons at 408.7
from revised 2001/02.
Despite Thailandís attempts to firm prices through
government intervention purchases, continued competition with Indiaís
low-priced exports and weakening of the Baht caused price quotes to soften.
Since last month, Thai 100B dropped $13 to $195 per ton, while Viet prices
remain virtually flat with continued harvesting of the summer-autumn crop at
$189 per ton.
Domestic export price quotes moved sideways this month
for both U.S. long grain grade #2/4 and medium grain #1/4 California, with
quotes unchanged at $210 (FAS) per ton and $255 per ton (ex-spout Sacramento),
Changes in 2003
- Australian exports
down 200,000 tons to 500,000 based on the expectation of strong
competition in the medium/short grain markets.
- Pakistan down
200,000 tons to 800,000 based on a smaller crop projections and shrinking
down 500,000 tons to 4 million resulting from reduced 2002/03 crop
projection and smaller exportable supplies.
Vietnam up 250,000 tons to 2.25 million and 3.5 million, respectively,
based on weaker projected exports from India.
Changes in 2002
- Australia exports
down 100,000 tons to 400,000 based on pace to date.
- Bangladesh imports
down 100,000 tons to 300,000 based on the pace to date.
down 75,000 tons to 200,000 tons based on the pace to date.
- North Korea
down 150,000 tons to 150,000 due to smaller than anticipated food aid
- Philippines up
600,000 tons to 1.2 million based on increased purchases by state trading
agencies and recent food aid donations from the United States.
- Saudi Arabia
down 100,000 tons to 900,000 based on the pace to date.
- Yemen down
15,000 tons to 200,000 based on the pace to date.
A significant drop in projected 2002/03 rice production may
allow the government of India to draw-down stocks to a manageable level.
Any further reductions in rice supplies could
limit exports and move India out of the number-two exporter slot.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003