SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
coarse grain trade in 2002/03 is projected down nearly 2 million tons from a
year earlier to 100.1 million tons. Global consumption is expected to continue
to outpace production, dropping carryout stocks by 36 million tons to 134.8
million tons. U.S. corn, China corn, and EU barley and rye are forecast to
comprise more than two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.
Global corn trade is forecast down 1.8 million
tons in 2002/03 largely due to the sharply lower Argentine crop and higher
global prices. Despite the smaller U.S. crop, expanding U.S. exports will offset
much of the reduction in Argentine shipments.
Barley supply is projected
to be tight from Australia and Canada, whereas Russia and Ukraine are poised to
fill the export gap with competitive prices and ample stocks.
Rye production in the EU has been artificially
sustained by government programs despite stagnating demand.
As a result, the stocks-to-use ratio has skyrocketed, while for other
coarse grains it has declined.
2002/03 Trade Changes
- United States corn cut 1.5 million tons to 51.0 million due to
dramatically lower production and higher prices. Barley reduced by
100,000 tons to 500,000 because of tighter supplies available from Canada
and strong competition for feed barley exports.
- Brazil corn
lowered 500,000 tons to 1.0 million due to expectations of a smaller crop
and strong domestic feed demand.
- China corn
boosted by 2.0 million tons to 8.0 million as global prices rise with
smaller crop prospects. In addition, imports are slashed by 900,000
tons to just 100,000.
- Hungary corn
increased 200,000 tons to 2 million based on shrinking competition and
increased demand prospects.
- South Africa corn raised 200,000 tons to 1.7 million because of improved
- Canada barley exports plunged by 800,000 tons to 500,000 due to a sharply
- Russia and
Ukraine barley raised significantly by 500,000 tons and
550,000 tons, respectively, as both countries are well positioned to fill
global feed demand.
- United States sorghum (and Mexico sorghum imports) slashed by
500,000 tons as a result of poor production prospects.
- Canada corn
doubled to 2.0 million tons because of poor production prospects for all
grain crops and strong domestic feed demand.
- Saudi Arabia corn dropped 300,000 tons to 1.5 million with prospects of
more modest growth in the poultry sector.
- Israel barley was
raised and corn lowered by 200,000 tons as ample supplies of cheap
grain out of the Black Sea countries are likely to favor barley over corn.
- United States barley reduced by 175,000 tons to 500,000 because of reduced
exportable supplies from Canada.
- United States corn is dropped 500,000 tons to 48.5 million.
- Brazil corn up 100,000 tons to 3.4 million based on a strong
- China corn raised 500,000 tons to 7.0 million because of recent
- Hungary corn increased 500,000 tons to 3.0 million based on a
continued strong export pace.
- Australia barley down 200,000 tons to 4.2 million because of slow
export shipments, in particular to China (which import forecast is
lowered 100,000 tons to 2.3 million).
- United States barley
reduced by 100,000 tons to 500,000 and sorghum lowered 200,000 tons
to 6.2 million due to slower than anticipated export pace.
- Saudi Arabia and Indonesia corn each fell 200,000 tons to 1.4 million and 1.1 million,
respectively, as a result of weak demand.
- Mexico sorghum
down 200,000 tons to 4.8 million based on weak demand.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003