SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2002/03 is
forecast to be 103.9 million tons, down 3.6 million tons from 2001/02.
Global production is forecast up 1.1 million tons and consumption up 6.7
million tons from the previous year. Global
stocks are forecast to fall by 13.6 million tons to the lowest level since
In early June, export quotes for
#2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $143/MT, up $13 from last month.
Global production is down 9.1 million tons from last month with lower
crops in Argentina, United States, China, India, Canada, Eastern Europe, and
Ukraine only minimally offset by a larger expected crop in the EU. Global
consumption is forecast down 2.1 million tons, while ending stocks are forecast
down 9.0 million tons from last month. Global
wheat trade in 2002/03 is forecast down 1.4 million tons largely because of
reduced imports in China and the EU. Smaller
exports by Argentina and Canada are only partially offset by more exports from
the EU and Kazakstan.
Within Argentina, internal prices
are skyrocketing as farmers hold back supplies due to uncertainty created by the
current economic crises. Therefore,
Brazil, which normally takes 96 percent of its wheat imports from Argentina, is
looking elsewhere for supplies until the Argentine harvest in December.
Consequently, an opportunity is arising for the United States, Canada,
and many nontraditional suppliers. In
fact, the United States has recently sold nearly 300,000 tons to Brazil, and
Poland is reported to have sold smaller amounts.
2002/2003 Trade Changes
- Argentina down
2.5 million tons to 9.0 million due to lower expected production resulting
from reduced planted area.
- Canada down
500,000 tons to 15 million based on a smaller expected crop.
- EU exports
up 1 million to 13.5 million due to lower expected export competition.
- Kazakstan up
500,000 tons to 4.5 million based on infrastructure improvements and less
expected competition from Argentina in the Iranian market.
down 1 million tons to 2 million based on high global prices and low
domestic prices, which suggest sufficient domestic supplies.
- Egypt up
500,000 tons to 6.0 million due to large supplies of cheap wheat from the
Black Sea region.
- EU down
500,000 tons to 3.5 million because of a record crop and rising global
- Morocco down
200,000 tons to 2.8 million based on a larger expected crop.
down 1 million tons to 16.5 million based on the slow shipment pace late
in the marketing year.
- Kazakstan up
500,000 tons to 4 million tons as a result of increased shipments to Iran
that will exceed 1 million tons, thus surpassing the ambitious early
season estimate by many officials in Kazakstan.
- Russia up
500,000 tons to 3.5 million due to very strong exports in recent months.
In May, shipments reached a high for the year with Egypt and the EU
as major destinations..
- China down
200,000 tons to 1.3 million due to the slow pace of imports.
- Egypt up
700,000 tons based on late-season purchases from nontraditional
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003