SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE
GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade in
2002/03 is projected down approximately 1.4 million tons from a year earlier to
more than 100.4 million. Global consumption is expected to continue to outpace
production, dropping carryout stocks from 170 million tons to 160 million. U.S.
corn, China corn, and EU barley and rye are forecast to comprise more than
two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.
U.S. exports
will benefit from reduced South American competition.
With an increase in forecast barley exports to 4.5 million tons in
2002/03, the EU will once again be the world’s largest barley exporter.
2002/03 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- U.S. corn
down 500,000 to 52.5 million tons as a result of higher anticipated
competition from Argentina.
- Argentina corn
increased 500,000 tons to 7.3 million based on higher expected domestic
supply.
- Canada corn
fell 200,000 tons to 300,000 due to lower anticipated production.
- South Africa corn raised 200,000 to 1.5 million tons based on increased
supplies and regional demand.
- Australia barley declined 400,000 to 3.5 million tons based on an upward
adjustment in forecast domestic use.
- EU and Russia barley each raised 500,000 to 4.5 million and 2.3 million
tons respectively as a result of improved export prospects.
- Canada barley down
200,000 to 1.3 million tons due to a reduced production forecast.
Selected Importers
- Canada corn
increased 300,000 tons to 1 million as a result of reduced expected
production.
- Venezuela corn
down 300,000 to 900,000 tons due to domestic policies, which constrain
imports.
2001/02
Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- Argentina corn
increased 250,000 to 9.5 million tons as a result of higher production.
- Russia barley up
500,000 to 2.3 million tons based on a strong export pace.
Selected Importers
- South Africa corn up 400,000 tons to 900,000 due to higher than
anticipated regional demand.
- Saudi Arabia barley increased 500,000 to 4.8 million tons based on a strong
import pace.
- U.S. oats up
100,000 to 1.3 million tons based on a strong import pace.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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