SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2002/03 is forecast to be 105.3 million tons, down 2.2 million tons from 2001/02.  Global production is forecast up 10 million tons and consumption up 8.7 million tons from the previous year.  Global stocks are forecast to fall by 6.7 million tons to the lowest level since 1996/97. 

In early June, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $130/MT, up $8 from last month.  Global production is down 6 million tons from last month with lower crops in the United States, Australia, China, and Eastern Europe only partially offset by larger expected crops in the EU and Morocco. Global consumption is forecast nearly identical to last month, while ending stocks are forecast down 6.4 million tons.  Global wheat trade in 2002/03 is forecast down slightly. Fewer exports by Australia, Hungary and Syria are countered by more U.S. and EU exports. 

EU imports for 2001/02 were raised to a record 9 millions tons.  However, market conditions created by a short crop are forecast to turn around in 2002/03 causing EU imports to drop dramatically to traditional levels.   Exports in 2001/02 from the major EU suppliers, Russia and the Ukraine were raised.

2002/2003 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Australia down 1 million tons to 17 million due to lower expected production.

• EU exports up 500,000 tons to 12.5 million due to large exportable supplies and lower expected export competition.

• Hungary down 200,000 tons to 1.3 million based on decreased crop prospects.

• Syria down 200,000 tons to 800,000 due to a smaller expected crop.

• United States up 500,000 tons to 24.5 due to less forecast competition from Australia.

Selected Importers

• Iraq down 300,000 tons to 3 million.

• Morocco down 300,000 tons to 3 million based on higher production.

2001/2002 Trade Changes 

Selected Exporters

• Australia down 500,000 tons to 17.5 million based on the slow pace of shipments to date.

• Russia up 500,000 tons to 3 million due to the recent strong pace of shipments to the EU and Middle East markets.

• Ukraine up 500,000 tons to 6 million based on exports to date.

Selected Importers

• EU up 1 million tons to 9 million  as supplies from Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union continue to enter Greece, Italy, and Spain.

• Iraq down 300,000 tons to 3 million due to lower-than-expected imports to date.

• Kenya down 200,000 tons based on the slow pace of imports.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003