WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2002/03 is
forecast to be 105.3 million tons, down 2.2 million tons from 2001/02.
Global production is forecast up 10 million tons and consumption up 8.7
million tons from the previous year. Global
stocks are forecast to fall by 6.7 million tons to the lowest level since
early June, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $130/MT, up $8 from last
month. Global production is down 6
million tons from last month with lower crops in the United States, Australia,
China, and Eastern Europe only partially offset by larger expected crops in the
EU and Morocco. Global consumption is forecast nearly identical to last month,
while ending stocks are forecast down 6.4 million tons. Global wheat trade in 2002/03 is forecast down slightly.
Fewer exports by Australia, Hungary and Syria are countered by more U.S. and EU
EU imports for 2001/02 were raised to a record 9 millions tons. However, market conditions created by a short crop are forecast to turn around in 2002/03 causing EU imports to drop dramatically to traditional levels. Exports in 2001/02 from the major EU suppliers, Russia and the Ukraine were raised.
2002/2003 Trade Changes
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