SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade for 2002 is projected at 24.6 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from last month and down only 200,000 tons from revised 2001.  Global ending stocks in 2001/02 are projected to drop 700,000 tons to 125.9 million tons as slightly higher world consumption exceeds declining world production (milled basis).           

During the first half of the month, Asian rice price quotes strengthened in part due to the Thai government’s increased intervention purchases.  Low-priced exports from India continue to pressure global prices.  However, since last month’s report, export price quotes for Thai 100B strengthened over the past month, increasing $11 to $207 per ton, Viet 5% export price quotes have increased $7 dollars to $193 per ton.  Over the past week, price quotes softened as import demand weakened.  Additionally, Vietnam started the harvest of their summer-autumn crop.  

Export price quotes for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 percent have also strengthened and are now $210  (FAS) per ton.  Quotes for medium grain #1/4 California rice fell $5 to $265 (ex-spout Sacramento) per ton.

Trade Changes in 2002

Selected Exporters

• Indian exports up 500,000 tons to 4.5 million due to competitive price schemes.

• Vietnam down 250,000 tons to 3.0 million due to smaller exportable supplies and based on export pace to date.

• EU down 75,000 tons to 275,000 due to WTO constraints limiting export subsidies.

Selected Importers

• Indonesia up 250,000 tons to 3.0 million based on the strong pace to date and increased import demand.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003