SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade in
2002/03 is projected down approximately 1 million tons from a year earlier to
nearly 100.3 million. Global consumption is expected to continue to outpace
production, dropping carryout stocks from 166 million tons to 148 million. U.S.
corn, China corn, and EU barley and rye are forecast to comprise more than
two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.
Global corn trade is forecast down a mere 900,000 tons
in 2002/03 as a result of flat or declining demand in the
major Asian markets and rising production in Canada. U.S. exports will
benefit from reduced South American competition and increased imports by Mexico.
2002/03 Trade Changes
- U.S. corn down 500,000 to 53 million tons as a result of a
reduction in anticipated domestic supply.
- China corn
soars 2 million tons to 6 million based on higher expected demand from key
Asian markets and rising U.S. prices.
- Japan and South Korea corn each raised 500,000 to 15.5 million and 8.5 million
tons respectively as higher use in 2001/02 spills over into 2002/03.
- China corn increased 500,000 to 6.5 million tons mostly as a
result of significant continuing sales to South Korea.
- Iraq barley up from zero to 450,000 tons based on reports of
shipments to Jordan.
- Japan corn up 700,000 tons to 16 million due to higher than
- South Korea corn raised 500,000 tons to 8.5 million based on
stronger than expected purchases.
- Mexico corn down 500,000 to 5 million tons resulting from slow
shipment pace to date.
- Syria barley up
300,000 to 500,000 tons based on domestic policies that facilitated higher
imports and a buildup of government stocks.
- Mexico sorghum up
300,000 to 5 million tons due to continuing strong demand.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003