SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade for 2002 is projected at 24.5 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons from last month and down only 300,000 tons from revised 2001.  Global ending stocks in 2001/02 are projected to drop 10 million tons to 126.6 million tons as slightly higher world consumption exceeds declining world production (milled basis).           

In general, Asian rice price quotes have strengthened over the past month due to increased import demand in part due to some speculation of an impending El Niño. Tight supplies in Vietnam and Pakistan have also contributed to firm prices.  However, price quotes for low quality white rice are softer due to competition from low-priced exports from India that continue to hold down global prices.  Export price quotes for Thai 100B strengthened slightly over the past month, increasing $1 to $196 per ton, Viet 5% export price quotes have increased $3 dollars to $186 per ton.

Export price quotes for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 percent have continued to fall and are now $190  (FAS) per ton.  Quotes for medium grain #1/4 California rice are steady at $270 (ex-spout Sacramento) per ton.

Trade Changes in 2002

Selected Exporters

• United States up 50,000 tons to 2.8 million based on an increase in exports, mainly to nearby markets in Central America.

• Argentina up 50,000 tons to 350,000 based on export pace to date.

• Burma up 200,000 tons to 1.0 million based on a strong export pace to date and competitive pricing.

• India up 750,000 tons to 4.0 million based on competitive pricing strategies for low quality white rice and parboiled rice.

• Vietnam down 250,000 tons to 3.25 million due to tight supplies and slow export pace to date.

Selected Importers

• El Salvador up 40,000 tons to 75,000 due to increased shipments from the United States.

• Indonesia up 250,000 tons to 2.75 million based on the strong pace to date and BULOG=s expanded buying intentions.

• Nigeria up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million based on increased demand for low priced parboiled rice from India.

Download the rice tables in:

Adobe Acrobat Format

Excel Spreadsheet Format

Return to Table of Contents

Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003