WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade is projected down almost 1.5 million tons to 99.1 million tons in 2002/03. World production is expected to continue to rebound from the 2000/01 five-year low as larger anticipated crops in the U.S., Canada, China and India more than offset reductions in the rest of the world. Global consumption is expected to continue to outpace production, dropping carryout stocks from 167 million tons to 158.6 million. U.S. corn, China corn, and EU barley and rye are forecast to comprise more than two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks. Despite an expected rise in U.S. corn production of almost 11 million tons over last year, burgeoning exports are projected to cause the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio to fall almost a full percentage point. Chinese corn production is forecast to rise 10 million tons, but with consumption forecast to continue its climb into record levels, stocks will continue to plummet.
Global corn trade is forecast down more than 1.9 million tons in 2002/03 as a result of shrinking global consumption and rising production in Canada and China. Global consumption is forecast to contract as increased meat imports to Asian markets and an abundance of feed wheat displaces corn. U.S. exports will benefit from constrained competition from Argentina, China, and Brazil. Imports are forecast down, or flat, in the key Asian markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Middle Eastern and North African imports continue to be fueled by expanding poultry operations.
trade is forecast to be largely
unchanged from the last two years. Robust production in key growing areas,
although down slightly from some of the mammoth crops of 2001/02, means that
export competition from Russia, Ukraine, EU, and Australia will be fierce.
Consumption is forecast to increase modestly, but high production levels will
result in stock building. North African imports are forecast to increase
United States corn production is forecast to rise nearly 11 million tons but will be offset by soaring exports, which are forecast up 4.5 million tons to 53.5 million tons. U.S. sorghum exports are expected to be flat at 6.4 million tons as growth in Mexico’s consumption is counter-balanced by shrinking Japanese use, while U.S. barley exports are forecast unchanged at 600,000 tons.
China corn exports are forecast down 2 million tons from 2001/2002 to 4 million tons.
Argentina corn exports are down almost 2.5 million to 6.8 million tons as relative returns favor the production of wheat and soybeans.
Brazil corn exports are down 2.5 million tons to 1.5 million in 2002/03 as production drops off from the 2000/01 record and domestic consumption continues its strong expansion.
Eastern Europe corn exports (most notably, Hungary and Romania) will maintain a relatively high level, contracting only slightly to 2.7 million tons. Production is expected to be lower than last year but well above the 2000/01 drought-reduced level. Infrastructure improvements are allowing increased movement of grains.
The European Union is forecast to recapture to its normal position as the world’s largest barley exporter. However, uncertainties over subsidy policy and strong competition from Russia, Ukraine, and Australia are likely to limit exports to 4 million tons.
While Australia barley production is expected to decline 1 million tons to 6.5 million, exports are forecast at 3.9 million tons, second only to the European Union.
Canada is expected to have one of its largest barley crops in recent years but large global feed barley supplies
and strong demand by Canada’s expanding livestock industry will limit
exports to 1.5 million tons.
Overall Asian import demand is expected to rise slightly in 2002/03. Rising consumption in China will offset flat or declining consumption in the rest of the region. South Korea corn imports are expected to be flat due to an abundance of feed wheat and rising meat imports. Japan and Taiwan corn are also forecast to continue contracting due to rising meat imports.
Middle East and North Africa
Saudi Arabia barley imports are forecast up sharply. North Africa barley production will improve from the sustained drought levels of recent years, which combined with large global supplies of low-priced barley, will result in increased consumption for the first time in three years. Egypt corn imports are expected to remain flat at 5.2 million tons as higher domestic corn production will capture growth in poultry consumption.
Mexico corn and sorghum imports are expected to increase to 6 million tons and 5 million tons respectively as a result of flat domestic production and expanding use.
The European Union is expected to return to its normal role as a minor importer of barley based on recent import tariff policy changes.
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