SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD WHEAT
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2001/02 is
forecast to be 107.7 million tons, up 4.4 million tons from
2000/01. Global production is forecast down 3.4 million tons and
is expected to remain below consumption for the third consecutive
year. Global stocks are forecast down 8.7 million tons from last
year to the lowest level since 1996/97.
In early March, export quotes for
#2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $128/MT, up $3 from last month. Global
production is up 1.3 million tons from last month mainly due to
larger crops in East Europe and Turkey. Global consumption is
almost unchanged from last month, while ending stocks are up 1.6
million tons. Global wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast down
slightly with fewer exports from the United States and EU mostly
offset by more exports from India, Kazakstan, and China. Imports
by Iran, Russia, South Korea, and Uzbekistan were lowered, while
the forecast for imports by the United States, EU, and Nigeria
were raised.
2001/2002 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- China up 500,000 tons
to 1.5 million based on shipments of feed quality wheat
to Korea and the Philippines and flour to Southeast Asia.
- India up 500,000 tons
to 3 million tons due to a strong export pace.
- Kazakstan up 500,000
tons to 3.5 million due to large shipments to Iran.
- EU down 1 million
tons to10 million based on the slow pace of export
licenses and strong competition from the FSU and E.
Europe.
- Bulgaria exports up
200,000 tons to 700,000 due to the high level of sales to
the EU and North Africa.
- Russia down 300,000
tons to 3.5 million due to a recent slowdown in
shipments.
Selected Importers
- EU up 1 million tons
to 8 million due to the increased pace of import licenses
for East European and FSU supplies.
- Iran down 500,000
tons to 6.0 million due to the slow pace of imports
despite large purchases from Kazakstan.
- Nigeria up 300,000
tons based on the pace of purchases from the United
States.
- Russia down 500,000
tons to 500,000 tons due to lower-than-expected imports
from Kazakstan as Russian supplies are abundant and
prices are low.
- United States up
150,000 tons to 2.7 million based on a strong import
pace.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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