SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global rice trade for 2002 is
projected at 23.7 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons from
the previous month but down 900,000 tons from revised 2001 trade
estimates. Global ending stocks for 2002 are projected to decline
to 126.6 million tons as slightly higher world consumption
exceeds declining world production (milled basis).
Price quotes stabilized during
March. While export price quotes for Thai 100B have hovered
around $195 per ton, export price quotes for Viet 5% have
rebounded, increasing $10 to $183 per ton after the large
decrease last month after the harvest.
Export price quotes for U.S. long
grain grade #2/4 percent have dropped to $187 (FAS) per ton.
Quotes for medium grain #1/4 California rice are steady at $270
(ex-spout Sacramento) per ton.
Changes in 2002
- Argentina up 50,000
tons to 300,000 with an expected increase in import
demand from Andean Community countries.
- Australia down
100,000 tons to 600,000 based on pace to date.
- Burma up 200,000 tons
to 800,000 on the export pace from the first quarter.
- India up 750,000 tons
to 3.25 million on strong shipment pace during the first
quarter and increasing competitiveness with Vietnam,
Pakistan, and Burma.
- Pakistan up 150,000
tons to 1.25 million due to a heavy shipment pace to
- Vietnam down 500,000
tons to 3.5 million based on a slower than expected pace
- Brazil up 100,000
tons to 600,000 due to increased stock building.
- Mexico up 75,000 tons
to 500,000 due to a year to year drop in production and
competitive U.S. rice export prices.
- Saudi Arabia up
125,000 tons to 1 million based on increased imports of
competitively priced rice from India.
- South Africa up
50,000 tons to 550,000 as near-record low world market
rice prices encourage greater consumption.
- Syria up 30,000 tons
to 180,000 due to rising consumption.
- Turkey down 100,000
tons to 250,000 as the economic recession has encouraged
substitution of pasta for relatively expensive rice.
Changes in 2001
- Argentina, Egypt, and
Uruguay changes based on year-end data.
- Japan, Mexico, Peru,
Russia, South Africa, and Turkey changes based on
- Brazil up 173,000
tons to 673,000 based on heavy imports from Uruguay
during the final quarter of 2001.
- Colombia up 113,000
tons to 163,000 based on heavier than expected border
trade from Ecuador.
- Saudi Arabia up
70,000 tons to 970,000 resulting from heavy imports of
competitively-priced rice from India.
- Syria up 16,000
tons to 166,000 based on high imports from Egypt in the
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003