SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for 2001/02 is projected down nearly
3.9 million tons from the previous year to 99.3 million. Global
consumption is expected to continue to outpace production and
carryout stocks are forecast to fall by more than 19.3 million
tons. U.S. corn, China corn, and EU barley are forecast to
account for nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.
Global corn trade is projected down approximately 3.7 million
tons from a year earlier to 72.3 million. U.S. exports are
forecast to increase a mere 885,000 tons from 2000/01, as strong
East European competition compensates for reduced competition
from Argentina and China. With this month's forecast, the EU is
now among the top four importers of barley.
2001/02 Trade Changes
- Argentina corn up a half million tons to 9 million
due to booming sales as harvest nears completion. The
economic crisis is not expected to greatly impact this
year's shipments, as the export tax offsets the
competitive advantage from the peso devaluation.
- China corn raised 1 million tons to 4 million as a
result of continued strong shipments of export
contracts signed before WTO entry.
- Brazil corn lowered 1 million tons to 4.3 million
based on a plunging sales pace in recent months.
- South Africa corn down 200,000 tons to 1.3 million
as a result of lagging shipments and tight supplies.
- Russia barley up 300,000 tons to 1.8 million, the
highest level in seven years, based on exports to date.
- EU barley down 500,000 tons based on the slow pace
of export licenses and the absence of export subsidies
necessary to compete with cheaper supplies from Russia
- United States sorghum down 200,000 to 6.4 million
based on slowing shipments.
- EU oats down 200,000 tons to 500,000 because of
the slow pace of export licenses and low quality
- Canada corn up 400,000 tons to 3.2 million due to
the strong purchase pace to date.
- South Korea corn up 500,000 to 7.5 million tons
due to an increasing purchase pace.
- South Africa corn raised 100,000 to 300,000 tons
due to tight supplies and high domestic prices.
- United States barley lowered 50,000 tons to
475,000 tons based on a slowdown in the pace of shipments
- EU barley raised 300,000 tons to 1 million tons,
the highest since 1988/89, as Black Sea exporters take
advantage of reduced import duties in force since late
- EU rye up 50,000 tons to 150,000 due to rising
imports into Spain, despite 5 million tons of
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003