SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be 107.8 million tons, up 4.4 million tons from 2000/01. Global production is forecast down 4.2 million tons and is expected to remain below consumption for the third consecutive year. Global stocks are forecast down 9.9 million tons from last year to the lowest level since 1996/97.

In early March, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $125/MT, the same as last month. Global production is up slightly on a larger Australian crop. Global consumption is forecast down 1.6 million tons while ending stocks are forecast up 2.0 million tons. Global wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast virtually unchanged from last month with more exports from Canada, Ukraine, and Russia mostly offset by less exports from the United States and the EU. Paradoxically, with this month’s higher import estimate, the EU is now also expected to be the world’s largest importer.

2001/2002 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States down 500,000 tons to 27 million due to the slow export pace, lagging global imports, and intense competition.

• Canada up 500,000 tons to 16.5 million due to an aggressive export pace.

• EU down 500,000 tons to 11 million based on the slow pace of export licenses and strong competition.

• Ukraine and Russia exports up 500,000 tons to 5 million and 300,000 tons to 2.8 million, respectively, due to the strong pace of shipments, especially to the EU.

Selected Importers

• EU up 500,000 tons to 7 million due to competitively priced imports, even with higher duties on lower quality wheat and falling internal prices.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003