SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade for 2002 is projected at 23.1 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons from last month but down 1.5 million tons from revised 2001. Global ending stocks in 2001/02 are projected to decline to 126.6 million tons as slightly higher world consumption exceeds declining world production (milled basis).

Asian price quotes have weakened over the past month, mostly due to the ongoing harvest of Vietnam’s Winter-Spring crop and pressure from low-priced exports from India. Export price quotes for Thai 100B softened slightly over the past month, dropping $4 to $195 per ton. Viet 5% export price quotes have plunged $22 dollars to $169 per ton.

Export price quotes for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 percent have continued to fall and are now $193 (FAS) per ton. Quotes for medium grain #1/4 percent California rice are steady at $270 (ex-spout Sacramento) per ton.

Trade Changes in 2002

Selected Exporters

• Burma up 100,000 tons to 600,000 based on continued competitive pricing.

• India up 200,000 tons to 2.5 million based on a strong shipment pace to date and competitive pricing.

• Thailand up 250,000 tons to 7.25 million based on strong import demand in Africa and Indonesia.

Selected Importers

• United States up 50,000 tons to 400,000 due to increased shipments to Puerto Rico.

• Bangladesh down 100,000 tons to 400,000 based on an estimated increase in production.

• Indonesia up 900,000 tons to 2.5 million based on the strong pace to date and BULOG’s expanded buying intentions.

• Peru down 35,000 tons to 65,000 based on increased production.

• Philippines down 200,000 tons to 600,000 due to an estimated increase in production and stocks.

• South Africa down 50,000 tons to 500,000 based on weaker than expected pace to date.

Trade Changes in 2001

Selected Exporters

• United States down 10,000 tons to 2.64 million based on year-end data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

• Pakistan up 300,000 tons to 2.4 million based on Pakistan’s Federal Bureau of Statistics.

• Uruguay up 50,000 tons to 750,000 based on trade data from January through September and shipment pace.

Selected Importers

• United States up 13,000 tons to 413,000 based on year-end data.

• Indonesia up 200,000 tons to 1.5 million due to strong import demand in the second half of 2001.

• Peru down 35,000 tons to 65,000 based on exporter data.

• Philippines up 225,000 tons to 1.175 million based on greater than expected import demand.

• South Africa down 50,000 tons to 500,000 based on exporter data.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003