SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for
2001/02 is projected down more than 2.9 million tons from the
previous year to nearly 99.6 million. Global consumption is
expected to continue to outpace production and carryout stocks
are forecast to fall by 20 million tons. U.S. corn, China corn,
and EU barley are forecast to account for nearly two-thirds of
world coarse grain stocks. With this month’s forecast, the
EU is now among the top five importers of barley.
Global corn trade is projected
down approximately 3.7 million tons from a year earlier to 71.9
million. U.S. exports are forecast to increase a mere 885,000
tons from 2000/01, as stronger competition from Eastern Europe
and Brazil almost offsets reductions from Argentina and China.
2001/02 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn
decreases 1 million tons to 49 million based on slow
shipments to date and recently canceled Chinese
purchases.
- Argentina corn up
500,000 tons to 8.5 million as a result of increased
production.
- Hungary corn raised
700,000 tons to 2.5 million due to the rapid shipment
pace to date.
- Romania corn down
600,000 tons to 200,000 based on lethargic, first-quarter
shipments.
- Ukraine barley up
500,000 tons to 2.5 million, the highest in at least 10
years, based on the pace of sales and shipments.
- Syria barley down
200,000 tons to zero because of a tighter domestic supply
situation.
Selected Importers
- Canada corn up
500,000 tons to 2.8 million based on the strong purchase
pace to date.
- China corn down
750,000 tons to 250,000 as a result of canceled
purchases.
- Mexico corn down
500,000 tons to 5.5 million based on a larger crop and a
relatively slow purchase pace to date.
- Russia corn doubled
to 600,000 tons due to strong domestic feed demand.
- South Korea corn up
300,000 tons to 7 million due to strong demand.
- Venezuela corn
decreased 200,000 tons to 900,000 as a result of
government corn restrictions.
- EU barley up 200,000
tons to 700,000, the highest since 1988/89, as Black Sea
exporters take advantage of temporary zero import duties
and relatively high domestic prices.
- EU sorghum down
200,000 tons to 100,000 based on slow Spanish import
licenses to date.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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