SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade
for 2001/02 is projected down more than 2.7 million tons from the
previous year to 99.8 million. Global consumption is expected to
continue to outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast
to fall by more than 23 million tons. US corn, China corn, and EU
barley are forecast to account for nearly two-thirds of world
coarse grain stocks. With this month’s forecast, EU barley
imports are expected to reach the highest levels in over a decade
as competitively priced Black Sea supplies continue to enter
duty-free.
Global corn trade is
projected down nearly 3.4 million tons from a year earlier to
72.3 million. US exports are forecast to increase almost 1.9
million tons from 2000/01, largely due to reduced competition.
Smaller US carryout stocks will result from a smaller crop and
larger exports.
2001/02 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- Turkey barley
up 450,000 tons to 500,000 because of recent sales and
pending export tenders.
- Kazakhstan
barley down 100,000 tons to 450,000 tons based
on strong competition from Ukraine and Russia.
- Ukraine oats
are forecast up 50,000 tons to 50,000 based on recent
sales.
Selected Importers
- Chile corn
up 200,000 tons to 1.4 million due to rising consumption.
- Dominican
Republic corn down 200,000 to 1 million tons as a
result of stagnant demand.
- Egypt corn
and Indonesia corn each down 200,000 tons to 5.1
million and 1.3 million respectively because of weaker
demand than anticipated.
- Philippines corn
down 200,000 to 400,000 tons based on flat consumption.
- EU barley up
300,000 tons to 500,000 tons based on the strong pace of
duty-free import licenses.
- EU rye up
100,000 tons to 100,000 because duty-free purchases from
Ukraine and/or Russia are cheaper than German rye.
2000/01 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- Argentina corn
down more than 170,000 to 12.2 million tons based on
end-of-year data.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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