SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be
107.4 million tons, up 4.1 million tons from 2000/01. Global
production is forecast down 3.8 million tons and is expected to
remain below consumption for the third consecutive year. Global
stocks are forecast down 10 million tons from last year to the
lowest level since 1996/97.
In early January, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB
Gulf averaged $128/MT, up $2 from last month. Global production
is estimated up 1.4 million tons from last month due mainly to a
larger crop in Russia which was only partially offset by a
smaller expected Argentine crop. Global consumption is forecast
down more than 7.2 million tons while ending stocks are forecast
up nearly 9.5 million tons. This was largely due to a revision to
Indias stocks which are forecast 8 million tons larger than
last month. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast nearly
identical to last month. Larger exports from Russia, Turkey, and
China were countered by smaller Indian and Kazak exports, while
only minor changes were made to a few importers.
2001/2002 Trade Changes
- India down 500,000 tons to 2.5
million based on a lagging sales pace.
- Kazakhstan down 500,000 tons to 3
million based on lower than expected shipments to the EU
and former Soviet Union markets.
- Turkey up 200,000 tons to 400,000
due to the strong pace of sales to Egypt and Italy.
- China exports up 500,000 tons to 1
million due to increased feed wheat sales to South Korea
and the Philippines.
- Russia up 500,000 tons to 2.5
million based on the strong pace of shipments.
- Bolivia up 125,000 tons to 500,000
due to a higher level of consumption.
- Tunisia up 200,000 tons to 1.7
million due to a lower year-to-year crop and continued
2000/2001 Trade Changes
- India up 180,000 tons to 2.3
million due to larger than expected shipments to
Southeast Asian markets.
- EU up 225,000 tons to 15.2 million
based on higher than expected exports of feed quality
wheat replacing barley in North African markets.
- Algeria up 600,000
tons to 5.6 million because of larger than expected
imports from the EU and Mexico.
- Egypt up 250,000 tons
to 6.1 million based on higher than expected year end
- Iran down 200,000
tons to 6.3 million due to fewer imports from the EU and
- Morocco up 300,000
tons as a result of larger than expected imports of feed
- Tunisia up 300,000
tons to 1.6 million based on end-of-year data.
- EU imports down
850,000 tons based on end-of-year data.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003