SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD
RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global rice trade for 2002 is
projected at 22.5 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from 2001.
Global ending stocks in 2001/02 are forecast to decline 125.4
million tons as slightly higher world consumption exceeds
declining world production (milled basis).
Price quotes for most Asian
qualities have strengthened over the past month in response to
shrinking supplies in Pakistan and Vietnam, both major exporters.
However, prices are expected to weaken by spring as 2002 crops
are harvested in Asia in the next couple of months.
Export price quotes for U.S. long
grain grade #2/4 percent have been at $209 (FAS) per ton for the
past few weeks, while quotes for medium grain #1/4 California
rice are at $270 per ton.
2002 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States up 50,000 tons to 2.75
million based on larger supplies and more competitive
U.S. prices.
- China down 500,000
tons to 1.5 million based on their WTO accession
agreement which significantly lowers export subsidies
and, therefore, depletes relative competitiveness in the
global market.
- Pakistan down 400,000
tons to 1.1 million due to a smaller 2001/02 crop.
- India up 800,000 tons
to 2.3 million based on the expectation that its rice
will supplant Chinese and Pakistani exports to some
nearby markets.
2001 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- Thailand up 300,000
tons to a record 7.5 million tons based on stronger than
expected exports in the last quarter.
- China down 100,000
tons to 1.7 million based on a slow export pace in the
last quarter.
- Egypt up 100,000 tons
to 650,000 based on a stronger pace to date.
Download the rice tables in:
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Format
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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