SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for
2001/02 is projected down nearly 3.3 million tons from the
previous year to 99.4 million. Global consumption is expected to
continue to outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast
to fall almost 23 million tons. U.S. corn, China corn, and EU
barley are forecast to account for nearly two-thirds of world
coarse grain stocks.
Global corn trade is projected
down 3.2 million tons from a year earlier at 72.4 million. US
exports are forecast to increase 1.8 million tons from 2000/01,
mostly as a result of reduced competition. Smaller US carryout
stocks will result from a smaller crop and larger exports. For
barley, Australia has emerged as an equal exporter to the EU on a
global basis as the Commission maintains its policy of no
subsidies.
2001/02 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn
down 2 million tons to 50 million based on the painfully
slow sales pace to date.
- Argentina corn down
500,000 tons to 8 million due to a significantly smaller
anticipated crop.
- Brazil corn increased
1.5 million to 5.3 million tons as a result of continued
strong demand for GMO-free corn.
- United States sorghum
up 500,000 tons to 6.6 million due to rising demand from
Mexico and Japan.
- EU barley down
500,000 tons to 4.5 million based on the slow pace of
export licences.
- EU oats up 100,000
tons to 700,000 based on the strong pace of export
licenses.
Selected Importers
- Turkey corn down
300,000 tons to 700,000 as a result of projected flat
demand.
- Mexico sorghum up
300,000 tons to 4.8 million due to a projected decrease
in demand for corn.
- Algeria and Morocco
barley down 200,000 tons each based on improved
growing conditions.
2000/01 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- EU barley down
900,000 tons to 5.9 million based on
lower-than-anticipated year-end shipments.
Selected Importers
- Algeria and Morocco
combined barley down 375,000 tons to 725,000 based on
a shift to cheaper wheat.
- China barley up
200,000 tons to 2.5 million as a result of
stronger-than-anticipated demand.
- Eastern Europe barley
(mostly Poland, Romania, and Slovenia) down 435,000 to
635,000 tons based on lower-than-expected imports from
the EU.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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